Among top source markets, US expects biggest fall in visitors from India this year

NEW DELHI: Among its top 12 source markets, the United States anticipates the biggest fall in international visitors to be from India this year over CY 2025. The US commerce dept’s National Travel and Tourism Office’s (NTTO) official forecast for 2026 sees the country getting over 7 crore international visitors, 3.2% more than last year’s 6.8 crore. “Of the top 12 source markets, arrivals from 10 countries are projected to grow in 2026.” The two from where the numbers are expected to drop are India (at over 4%) and France (about 1%).

In CY 2025, India was overall the fourth biggest source market for international visitors to the US with Mexico and Canada — who are just across the border — and the second largest overseas one (just after the UK). Japan and Brazil are expected to overtake India this year, pushing it to the sixth spot.

“India and China present divergent near-term outlooks. Arrivals from India are projected to contract 4.1% in 2026, with a return to growth anticipated in 2027. Chinese arrivals are forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2026, with more robust growth projected through 2030,” the study says.

The findings are not surprising as potential Indian visitors to the US have been facing a number of issues in the recent past. These include visa issues specifically for students; limited connectivity with Air India reducing flights due to airspace restrictions and very high airfares from even before the West Asia war broke out. United is yet to return to pre-Covid levels due to restrictions on overflying Russia for US carriers. All these factors have led to subdued demand for the past few months and the US-Iran war has only made things worse in terms of further increasing airfares and reducing flights. The rupee’s crash has made foreign trips anyway more expensive for Indians.

“There are apprehensions in the minds of many Indian travellers. Some of them may be unfounded but overall travel with the US and Canada have been declining for a while. Canada shows signs of picking up but the US is yet to see that happen,” said a leading travel agent.

NTTO’s forecast covers these top 12 source markets — Canada, Mexico, France, Germany, Italy, UK, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Brazil — which collectively accounted for 77.2% of total international arrivals to the US in 2025. The anticipated growth in 2026 “is partly driven by the 2026 FIFA World Cup…. NTTO forecasts international visitation to the US will reach an all-time high of 8.2 crore in 2029 before rising further to 8.5 crore in 2030,” it says.