Middle East on boil, but Dubai real estate defies the heat with missiles, luxury cars and steady prices

Even as the Middle East conflict enters its 19th day, Dubai’s real estate market has remained steady. Despite the UAE enduring repeated missile and drone attacks from Iran, property prices have held firm. To attract buyers, developers and brokerage firms are offering incentives such as extended payment plans, fee waivers, and even luxury cars. Since the onset of the conflict, Dubai has recorded property transactions worth AED 23.97 billion (roughly Es 60,000 crore). Yet, transaction volumes have declined 14% year-on-year between March 2 and March 16, according to Dubai Land Department data. However, high-value sales continue to dominate. A six-bedroom under-construction ultra-luxury apartment in Jumeirah Second, spanning 31,200 square feet, changed hands for AED 422 million this month, ET reported, marking one of Dubai’s most expensive apartment deals. Elsewhere, a ready six-bedroom villa on Palm Jumeirah’s Frond G sold for AED 95 million, while a five-bedroom under-construction apartment in the same area went for AED 92.5 million. Industry insiders say most of these deals were agreed upon prior to the conflict and are only being registered now. Transaction numbers fell from 9,029 in the two weeks before the war to 6,541 after it began. Amit Goenka, managing director of Nisus Finance, explained, “It is hard to renege on deals agreed to earlier owing to the cost involved. A clearer picture on the real estate market will emerge in April or May, regarding the number of transactions and deal value.” Developers are keeping base prices intact but are providing buyers with waivers such as the 4% Dubai Land Department registration fee and brokerage fee discounts of around 2%. Payment plans have also been extended, often by four to six months depending on project completion. “Currently, brokerage companies and developers are not looking at baseline reduction in property prices. Instead, they are offering 4% DLD waivers and stretched payment plans,” said a senior real estate executive. Damac Properties has added luxury cars to purchases of under-construction properties above AED 1.5 million between March 12 and March 31 as part of an Eid promotion. Anuj Puri, chairman of ANAROCK Group, said: “Developers have rightly chosen to maintain price stability while offering waivers and extended payment plans. A 4% DLD waiver on an AED 5 million property is a meaningful deal sweetener, but in no way signals a change in prices.” Goenka noted that such incentives could sometimes foreshadow price corrections: “These are usually the first signs of how the market behaves initially before price cuts emerge.” Some developers, especially those with significant under-construction inventory, are already offering cash discounts. S&P Global Ratings stated that a repeat of the 2008 crash is unlikely due to stronger regulations and residency programmes, such as the 10-year Golden Visa. Knight Frank’s latest MENA report noted a shift towards more genuine users in the market, with resales within 12 months dropping to 4% last year from around 25% in 2008. Faisal Durrani, partner and head of Middle East research at Knight Frank, added: “While the conflict tested the confidence of the expat population, UAE’s strong fundamentals continue to support the market.” Indian buyers remain a significant force, accounting for 23% of foreign residential transactions in 2025, up from 12% in 2023. According to Puri, regional tensions have not dampened interest: Indian investors continue to look at Dubai’s real estate market with the same enthusiasm.