Risk vs roti: Indians stay back in Gulf as war intensifies - here's why

As tensions escalate in the boiling Middle Eastern region, residents and travellers are scrambling to catch the first outbound flights. Yet, many Indian blue-collar workers remain behind, choosing to stay for their jobs and to support their families rather than return home. While salaries continue to be paid on schedule, recruiters caution that a prolonged conflict could eventually trigger layoffs.“Indian workers in the Gulf earn between Rs 30,000 and Rs 1,00,000 per month, nearly double what they would at home,” Kartik Narayan, CEO of Apna.co told ET. He added that roughly 65-70% of the nine million Indians in the region are employed in construction, oil, services, and other labour-intensive sectors. Farhan Azmi, founder of Futurz Staffing Solutions, which places Indian workers in the Gulf, noted that many have been asked to take mandatory leave as tensions rise. The US-Israel conflict with Iran, which has triggered retaliatory strikes on US allies in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, entered its 18th day on Tuesday.Prashant Pachisia, founder and director of 2COMS Group, which recently began sending workers to the Gulf, said that demand for labour has declined since the conflict started. “Yet workers are not returning as of now; only those in corporate roles are considering returning until normalcy resumes,” he added.Aditya Mishra, chief executive of CIEL HR, explained that sectors such as construction, logistics, shipping, and hospitality could face temporary workforce adjustments if the conflict slows infrastructure projects or disrupts trade and energy flows.Suchita Dutta, executive director of the Indian Staffing Federation, echoed these concerns, adding that worsening conditions could reduce the Indian workforce in Gulf sectors that rely heavily on foreign labour, potentially affecting job security.Experts also anticipate a possible surge in hiring once the conflict ends, as many projects are currently on hold.Manmeet Singh, CEO of FirstMeridian Global & InnovSource, said that the UAE and Saudi Arabia host the largest number of Indian workers, followed by Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. “Many support four to five family members back home, so they are continuing in their roles while monitoring the situation,” he told ET.Employers are proceeding cautiously due to rising insurance costs, disrupted logistics, and project uncertainty, which has also slowed domestic blue-collar hiring. Singh added, “Export-oriented units focused on the Middle East and Europe, which once ran three shifts, are now operating one or two shifts.”