2027 election picture blurred by anti-incumbency, disunited oppn

Panaji: The results of the recent assembly elections in four states have left both voters and political parties uncertain about the outlook for Goa’s upcoming 2027 assembly elections, scheduled just months away. Goa appears to mirror some of these states, with BJP govt facing 15 years of anti-incumbency alongside a fragmented opposition.The election outcomes across the four states—Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu—highlighted contrasting trends. A weak opposition enabled incumbent govts to retain office, while a strong and united opposition succeeded in dislodging established govts despite their performance. In some cases, voters also rallied behind new political alternatives, distancing themselves from traditional parties.Senior advocate and political observer Cleofato Coutinho noted that three chief ministers lost their positions and all four states experienced anti-incumbency. Assam was the only exception, where a weak opposition allowed the incumbent govt to retain office. In Tamil Nadu, anti-incumbency was capitalised on by a new political force, while in West Bengal, BJP benefited from voter dissatisfaction.“Goa faces a similar situation with high anti-incumbency, but there is no charismatic leader to capture public imagination like in Tamil Nadu. The opposition remains disorganised and lacks the structure to challenge BJP effectively,” Coutinho said.Goa’s political landscape reflects these challenges. Since 2012, BJP has managed to form govt in the state. Even after losing the 2017 assembly election, former chief minister Manohar Parrikar successfully formed govt with the support of regional parties such as GFP, MGP, and independent MLAs.The 2022 assembly election saw a multi-cornered contest, with a divided opposition and several new entrants. BJP secured victory by reaching the halfway mark in the 40-member assembly, aided by a split in minority votes among Congress, GFP, TMC, and RG. New entrants made notable impacts—RG secured a 9.9% vote share and one seat, while TMC garnered 5% but failed to win any seats. AAP won two seats, Congress secured 11 seats, and GFP won one.Despite facing governance challenges and anti-incumbency, BJP retained control of both zilla panchayats in Dec 2025 for a third consecutive term, winning 29 of 50 seats—down from 33 in 2020. Meanwhile, Congress improved its tally from three to 10 seats. However, the divided opposition continued to benefit BJP in closely contested races.Coutinho emphasised that any opposition alliance must demonstrate unity and clarity. “An alliance needs strong internal chemistry for people to see it as a credible alternative. It must have a common programme and settle seat-sharing arrangements well in advance,” he said.With the 2027 elections approaching, BJP’s organisational machinery remains active, though public sentiment appears mixed. At the same time, opposition parties are yet to unite around a common strategy to effectively capitalise on anti-incumbency.GFP president and Fatorda MLA Vijay Sardesai stressed the need for a coordinated opposition approach. “The election results show that BJP can go to any extent to win. We must learn from these outcomes and develop a strategy to ensure anti-incumbency is not wasted in Goa,” he said. Sardesai also called for broader unity among political parties and citizens opposed to govt. “BJP has completed 15 years in office, and there is a natural anti-incumbency after three terms. We intend to make full use of it,” he added.