‘LDF failed to read indications given by people’

In a worst-ever debacle, LDF, after its formation in the 80s, was reduced to 35 seats from a tally of 99 seats that it won in the election during pandemic. Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who is credited with successfully leading LDF to victory for the second term, also helmed the campaign that sought a mandate for the third term. Anti-incumbency wave clearly shows that people were dissatisfied with ruling front and their style of governance.LDF failed to read indications given by people in parliamentary elections, byelections and elections to LGSD. Instead of fixing the problems, CPM and LDF steered a propaganda campaign on their ten-year achievements in infrastructure development, welfare schemes and extreme poverty eradication project. The propaganda, which was centred on the personality cult of chief minister, backfired, even making him trail in the first five rounds of counting. The UDF victory in 102 seats, sweeping three districts, surpassed its impressive tally in the previous assembly elections. Congress and its main ally, Indian Union Muslim League, put in consistent efforts to reclaim power they had lost twice. Performance of UDF in the last few elections instilled confidence to work towards a massive result. Usual infights within Congress party surfaced during preparation of candidature list but were paused with the intervention of high command and also advice of its core ally, the League. UDF manifesto announced populist measures named Indira Guarantee to appeal to the masses with welfare measures and also pave its own way in welfare administration. Unlike earlier times, there were no serious disputes in the party that led to rebellions. However, CPM saw defections that have virtually uprooted party bases in their bastions. Party veteran G Sudhakaran won defeating the incumbent CPM MLA, and also T K Govindan and K Kunhikrishnan won the elections, creating a dent in CPM votes in party strongholds Taliparamba and Payyannur. Another reason cited for UDF victory is minority consolidation in favour of the front. If there was a Muslim consolidation, it was only a response to the reprehensible communal polarization remarks of SNDP leader Vellappally Natesan. While anti-incumbency wave rode UDF to a massive victory, the three seats, Nemom, Chathannoor and Kazhakkoottam, won by BJP, project a change in political alignments. BJP will be looking to expand its base, finding new allies for the long run. BJP has won in constituencies where CPM and CPI have won in the previous elections. Votes captured by BJP are from both fronts with most of it gained from LDF. If there is an erosion of votes, then CPM has a lot to worry about beyond these elections. BJP's victory also indicates that Kerala is changing and apprehensions about voting for BJP are waning, which can result in changes in the existing political configurations of the state. It also sends out a message to both the traditional fronts that they have to think beyond the occasional lip service to secular polity and culture if they want to survive meaningfully.