Sustained war in Iran depletes high-end missile stocks of US

Despite unrelenting US and Israeli airstrikes, Iran has launched almost 1,200 ballistic missiles and 4,000 rudimentary Shahed cruise missiles at Gulf countries since the war began, according to those countries’ official reports, which are not comprehensive.

Ballistic missile defence calls for firing at least twice at each target, given the doctrine of shoot-shoot-look, in which crews launch two times and then check the result. That implies at least 2,400 interceptors fired over the course of the war, and perhaps many more, since sometimes additional missiles are needed to defend against incoming projectiles.




The vast majority were Patriot PAC-3 and GEM-T missiles, of which Gulf countries had less than 2,800 before the war, based on US foreign military sales authorisations, and estimates by three experts and a person familiar with the matter.

The US defence department said it had all the munitions needed to complete its missions. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) documents show how many missiles were requested or authorised, but a smaller number may have been delivered. While Lockheed Martin Corp. makes about 650 PAC-3 interceptors per year, the company signed an agreement in Jan to make 2,000 a year by 2030. The company also makes 96 THAAD interceptors per year, but reached a separate deal to increase that number to 400.

The United States has also launched hundreds of $2 million Tomahawk missiles and more than 1,000 of the stealthier $1.5 million JASSMs, according to the person familiar with the matter, who didn’t want to be named. Although many strikes have switched to the cheaper Joint Direct Attack Munitions, or JDAM, cruise missiles remain in heavy use because parts of Iran’s airspace remain risky for close-in operations.

There were about 4,000 Tomahawks in US stockpiles before the war, and RTX Corp. produces about 100 each year; Lockheed can build at most about 860 JASSMs this year, according to govt documents. Both missiles are designed to fly long distances. These types of weapons are crucial for a conflict against an advanced adversary like China.

“Allowing the high-end weapons to run down does suggest the US thinks it won’t need to fight China or can win quickly,” said Peter Layton, a former Royal Australian Air Force officer and a visiting fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute. “It is interesting strategically in that it suggests the Trump administration sees Iran as the most important issue and is willing to bet the farm on destroying it.”

The drain on munitions has alarmed US allies around the world, as weapons systems and ammunition have been pulled to support the campaign against Iran. The Pentagon is considering diverting weapons shipments meant for Ukraine to the Gulf region, according to the Washington Post. Those supplies include missile interceptors.

Officials in Germany and France, with two of the continent’s most powerful militaries, say they see signs of strain in supplies of certain arms. “A prolonged US involvement in the war in Iran would place a significant strain on the US military’s stocks,” said Thomas Erndl, defence policy spokesperson for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
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