disruptive trade war

Global oil prices surged to a four-year high amid escalating US-Iran tensions and fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure, impacting gasoline prices and broader economies. Analysts warn of a potential global recession due to supply disruptions, with shortages already affecting various goods. Experts predict further price hikes until the strait reopens.

For RBI the situation is clear: The resilience of the global economy, already inflicted with trade tensions, is being tested by the conflict in West Asia. The biggest takeaway from the RBI bulletin is that India’s domestic supply chains may come under risk from a prolonged war scenario, though strong macroeconomic fundamentals provide a buffer.

President Trump has halted 'Project Freedom,' a US military initiative to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing requests from Pakistan and progress toward a deal with Iran. This pause comes after the US declared the offensive phase of 'Operation Epic Fury' complete, emphasizing defensive actions in the region.

Middle East conflict escalates, pushing crude oil prices above $126 per barrel and straining India's state-run oil companies. Facing mounting losses, these companies seek permission to raise pump prices, but the government hesitates, balancing consumer protection against financial pressures and potential inflation.

President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 34%, its lowest point, amid growing public dissatisfaction over the rising cost of living and the ongoing conflict with Iran. Economic concerns, particularly a 40% surge in gasoline prices following military action against Iran, are driving this discontent, impacting households and the Republican Party ahead of midterm elections.

Iran and the US remain locked in a standoff, with Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and the US imposing a naval blockade. Both actions disrupt global commons, while escalating rhetoric and social media influence commodity prices worldwide. India, heavily reliant on regional energy flows, faces significant economic fallout from this 'dual blockade'.

Washington isn’t interested in being a guarantor of anything, including energy supplies. New Delhi’s strategic response must centre around the one energy source it has in abundance

US President Trump's second term prioritizes oil, leveraging energy dominance for global influence. Campaign funding from oil interests aligns with policies boosting domestic production and easing regulations. Sanctions on rivals and geopolitical events like the Hormuz crisis engineer demand for American exports, impacting nations like India and reshaping global energy markets.

Fuel prices held steady across major Indian cities on Monday, defying volatile global crude oil markets driven by Middle East tensions. Despite Brent crude exceeding $106 per barrel, domestic petrol and diesel rates remained unchanged. This stability, however, is precarious, with potential hikes looming if international oil prices continue their ascent.

Despite a positive meeting, China is strategically expanding economic leverage against the US. New regulations target companies shifting supply chains and restrict foreign tech in state data centers. Beijing is building pressure tools, moving beyond trade, as both nations navigate a complex geopolitical landscape and competition for critical resources.

US President Donald Trump shared a modified map renaming the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump," following claims that a naval blockade against Iran could last for months. This development occurs as Iran rejects US claims about economic damage and criticizes the blockade strategy, with its parliament speaker calling the advice "junk."

Oil prices dipped Wednesday after an initial Asian surge, as traders weighed US-Iran peace talk uncertainties following Washington's ceasefire extension. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel market anxiety. Geopolitical developments, including potential pipeline issues and upcoming US inventory data, are also influencing price movements, suggesting continued volatility.

Indian equities experienced significant volatility as geopolitical tensions impacted markets, leading to a weaker rupee and investor caution. While fear drives knee-jerk reactions, the core design of Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) is built to navigate these phases, turning market swings into a potential long-term advantage for disciplined investors.

In March, with the US sanctions waiver in effect, India has aggressively procured Russian crude, picking up millions of barrels. India has never officially said that it will stop buying Russian crude, and even when levels dropped after sanctions, Russia was still the biggest contributor.

Until now, the United States had largely focused its efforts on smaller Chinese companies and facilities in an attempt to curb Iran’s oil revenues, partly to avoid broader economic and diplomatic consequences.

Tensions flared in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on a container ship, causing damage. Another cargo vessel reported being fired upon. These incidents complicate US-Iran diplomatic efforts, despite a US ceasefire extension and Pakistan's mediation. The strategic waterway, crucial for global energy, remains under pressure amid escalating hostilities.

Middle East tensions surged Friday, pushing oil prices up as Iran released footage of commandos boarding a ship in the Strait of Hormuz and reported military activity over Tehran. Analysts warn prolonged disruption could severely impact global supply, with inventories potentially falling to multi-year lows. Markets remain on edge as diplomatic efforts face uncertainty.

Amidst global supply chain disruptions, India's economic leaders are prioritizing domestic strength. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted the vast Indian consumer base as a key defense, while industry titans emphasised strategic self-reliance in manufacturing and a pivot to green energy. This approach aims to leverage India's demographic dividend and workforce to navigate international volatility and accelerate national growth.