disruptive trade war

Global oil prices surged to a four-year high amid escalating US-Iran tensions and fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure, impacting gasoline prices and broader economies. Analysts warn of a potential global recession due to supply disruptions, with shortages already affecting various goods. Experts predict further price hikes until the strait reopens.

For RBI the situation is clear: The resilience of the global economy, already inflicted with trade tensions, is being tested by the conflict in West Asia. The biggest takeaway from the RBI bulletin is that India’s domestic supply chains may come under risk from a prolonged war scenario, though strong macroeconomic fundamentals provide a buffer.

Middle East conflict escalates, pushing crude oil prices above $126 per barrel and straining India's state-run oil companies. Facing mounting losses, these companies seek permission to raise pump prices, but the government hesitates, balancing consumer protection against financial pressures and potential inflation.

President Trump has halted 'Project Freedom,' a US military initiative to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing requests from Pakistan and progress toward a deal with Iran. This pause comes after the US declared the offensive phase of 'Operation Epic Fury' complete, emphasizing defensive actions in the region.

President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 34%, its lowest point, amid growing public dissatisfaction over the rising cost of living and the ongoing conflict with Iran. Economic concerns, particularly a 40% surge in gasoline prices following military action against Iran, are driving this discontent, impacting households and the Republican Party ahead of midterm elections.

Iran and the US remain locked in a standoff, with Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and the US imposing a naval blockade. Both actions disrupt global commons, while escalating rhetoric and social media influence commodity prices worldwide. India, heavily reliant on regional energy flows, faces significant economic fallout from this 'dual blockade'.

Washington isn’t interested in being a guarantor of anything, including energy supplies. New Delhi’s strategic response must centre around the one energy source it has in abundance

US President Trump's second term prioritizes oil, leveraging energy dominance for global influence. Campaign funding from oil interests aligns with policies boosting domestic production and easing regulations. Sanctions on rivals and geopolitical events like the Hormuz crisis engineer demand for American exports, impacting nations like India and reshaping global energy markets.

Fuel prices held steady across major Indian cities on Monday, defying volatile global crude oil markets driven by Middle East tensions. Despite Brent crude exceeding $106 per barrel, domestic petrol and diesel rates remained unchanged. This stability, however, is precarious, with potential hikes looming if international oil prices continue their ascent.

Despite a positive meeting, China is strategically expanding economic leverage against the US. New regulations target companies shifting supply chains and restrict foreign tech in state data centers. Beijing is building pressure tools, moving beyond trade, as both nations navigate a complex geopolitical landscape and competition for critical resources.

US President Donald Trump shared a modified map renaming the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump," following claims that a naval blockade against Iran could last for months. This development occurs as Iran rejects US claims about economic damage and criticizes the blockade strategy, with its parliament speaker calling the advice "junk."

Oil prices dipped Wednesday after an initial Asian surge, as traders weighed US-Iran peace talk uncertainties following Washington's ceasefire extension. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel market anxiety. Geopolitical developments, including potential pipeline issues and upcoming US inventory data, are also influencing price movements, suggesting continued volatility.