core inflation

Retail inflation in India rose to 3.4% in March, driven by higher food and fuel prices. While core inflation remained subdued, economists anticipate further price increases in the coming months due to the West Asian crisis and potential impacts of heatwaves and monsoon forecasts on food prices.

Trump is attempting to rebuild his tariff regime using alternative legal avenues after the court ruled that his earlier reliance on emergency powers to impose duties was unconstitutional.

Global oil markets face turmoil due to the Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. India, heavily reliant on oil imports, feels the pinch through rising inflation and borrowing costs. The Reserve Bank of India monitors the situation, opting for stability over aggressive action. Households may experience a gradual tightening of budgets as costs rise and monetary easing is delayed.

Food inflation, based on the All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), was 3.87% (provisional) for March 2026 on a year-on-year basis. The rate was slightly higher in rural areas at 3.96%, compared to 3.71% in urban regions.

According to RBI governor Malhotra, high frequency indicators till February, 2026 suggest the continuation of strong momentum in economic activity. Growth impulses continue to be supported by robust private consumption and investment demand.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted India's strong debt management, with an 81% debt-to-GDP ratio, positioning it favorably among major economies amidst global economic volatility. The ongoing Middle East conflict poses a systemic threat to global energy, impacting supply chains and economic stability, while the RBI's MPC begins deliberations amid inflation concerns.

India's retail inflation climbed to 3.21% in February, primarily driven by a surge in food prices. While this rise is within the RBI's target, specific items like gold and silver saw price acceleration. core inflation remained steady, suggesting underlying price trends are moderate. Experts anticipate potential upside risks from oil prices but view them as temporary.

CII hopes that the RBI would not wait for the next quarterly review but intervene sooner if the economic condition warrants a mid-course correction.

The minutes of the February MPC highlighted internal members’ elevated concerns on core inflation while a few members were concerned about overtightening. Most members, however, expressed comfort on the growth front.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.0% increase in the consumer price index for the June quarter, aligning with predictions. The annual CPI inflation rate hit 3.8%. core inflation rose 0.8%, falling below expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained interest rates at 4.35% due to concerns over the labor market and economic stagnation.

The low volatility of the Indian rupee relative to peer currencies limits the impact of imported price pressures and other global spillovers.

Despite rising industrial metal prices, India's core inflation outlook remains positive. Significant factors like a stable rupee, declining energy prices, and a normal monsoon suggest a supportive inflation environment, although global market uncertainties such as trade policies and commodity price changes could still create challenges.

US inflation eased in March, driven by lower petrol, air travel, and hotel costs, offering consumers some relief amid trade war anxieties. The annual consumer price increase slowed to 2.4%, with core inflation also weakening. Experts caution that President Trump's tariffs could reverse this trend, potentially raising prices on imported goods and impacting consumer spending.

The brokerage expects the recent sharp drop in wholesale price inflation to feed into Consumer Price Inflation (CPI fuel) and CPI core goods inflation with a lag.