IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 13 matches to go, RCB surge to 99% as KKR crash to 2.6% - odds for each team explained

With 13 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT and RCB have almost qualified, while SRH would have to do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs. PBKS, too, remain in a good position to get there.

CSK and RR have a better-than-even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. KKR and DC have really slim chances. There remain 8,192 possible combinations of results, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight teams remaining in the race.




We look at the probabilities:

• GT have a 99.7% chance of finishing within the top four in terms of points (including possible ties), and their chances of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly, are an impressive 82.6%.
• With the win on Wednesday, RCB have a 99% chance of finishing among the top four by points and a 77.6% chance of being among the top two.
• SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four by points are at 77%, and they have only a 31.4% chance of being among the top two.
• PBKS’ chances of ending up among the top four on points are 63.6%, and they have only a 22.2% chance of finishing among the top two.
• At 53.2%, CSK have a better-than-even chance of getting into the top four, but only a 19% chance of ending up among the top two.
• RR have a slightly lower 53% chance of ending up among the top four and only a 15.3% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots.
• KKR’s already slim chances of making the last four have shrunk after Wednesday’s loss to a mere 2.6%, and they can no longer even tie for one of the top two slots.
• DC’s hopes of making the playoffs remain at a measly 2.7%. They can, at best, finish third, tied with anywhere between two and three other teams.

How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 8,192 possible combinations of results remaining with 13 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these combinations end with them being among the top four, either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two, either singly or jointly. For instance, DC finish in the top four in just 220 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a mere 2.7% chance of being among the top four — and even that is jointly, not singly.
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