NDA tightens grip on big states as opposition presence shrinks in key battlegrounds

NEW DELHI: As the dust settles on assembly poll results, BJP-led NDA's dominance of India's political landscape has become crystal clear.

Of six heavyweight states with 278 Lok Sabha seats among them, which account for over half of Parliament's 543 seats, the governing alliance is now in office in five of them that have a combined LS strength of 239.



Since PM Narendra Modi led BJP to its maiden majority in 2014, BJP's position in these states was never so commanding as it is now, having its chief ministers in three of them, with Bengal soon to be a glittering addition to the list.

In contrast, INDIA bloc, now vanquished in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, has never been so feeble in battleground states which hold the key to parliamentary majority.

After the four biggest states - Uttar Pradesh (80), Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42) and Bihar (40), all with BJP-led NDA in office, comes Tamil Nadu (39) where actor Vijay has led TVK to close to majority mark in 2026 assembly poll. He has been vocal in his opposition to BJP as well as DMK, a strong member of INDIA bloc. The sixth state is the BJP stronghold of Madhya Pradesh with 29 seats.

To be sure, Lok Sabha elections constitute a different battle altogether, and parties in office in states often fare poorly in parliamentary elections. In 2024, BJP was pushed to second position by SP-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh, while BJP came out on top in Congress-governed Karnataka. But unseating the incumbent while not governing any of the big states does become a herculean task for Opposition.

With elections due in UP early next year and in Madhya Pradesh in 2028, the arithmetic may still change if opposition parties manage to take down BJP in the Hindi-heartland states.



If the list is enlarged to include all 18 states with double-digit Lok Sabha tally, then their combined strength jumps to 502 in the 543-member House. On that list, Opposition does make its presence felt, but only just. It is in office in five states - Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Jharkhand and Punjab - which have a total of 92 seats.