Autumn of the patriarch: How anti-incumbency, PR blunders sank LDF as Congress-led UDF sweeps Kerala with 102 seats

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The Congress-led UDF on Monday stormed back to power in Kerala after a 10-year hiatus, riding a larger-than-expected anti-incumbency wave against the Pinarayi Vijayan govt. It secured a commanding 102 seats in the 140-member assembly, a scale of victory that surprised even its own ranks. The BJP, meanwhile, registered a modest but notable breakthrough, winning three seats.

The LDF's rout is widely attributed to public anger over what critics describe as Vijayan's increasingly authoritarian style, particularly following the front's historic re-election in 2021. The decisive edge the UDF secured in 2025 local body polls already lifted the opposition's prospects, but the ruling front managed to project the contest as a tightly fought battle.

The CPM sought to portray the UDF as a platform for extremist communal elements, citing alleged backing from groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami and Social Democratic Party of India. As part of this strategy, Vijayan reached out to leaders of majority community organisations in an apparent bid to consolidate Hindu votes. However, the UDF's sweeping victory across regions has effectively blunted this narrative. Efforts to influence key communities, particularly Nairs and Ezhavas, through outreach to outfits like the Nair Service Society and SNDP Yogam, once again proved ineffective.

Despite a relatively weak organisational structure in Kerala, the Congress made significant gains, winning 63 seats — a sharp rise from its tally of 21 in the outgoing assembly — indicating a broad-based shift in public support cutting across caste and community lines.

More than the reduced tally, what has stung the CPM is the symbolic defeat delivered by its own former functionaries. The victory of V Kunhikrishnan, a former CPM district committee member, who contested as a UDF-backed independent in Payyannur — long considered a red citadel in Kannur — points to deep discontent within the party's grassroots ranks.

The win of another former district secretariat member, T K Govindan, in Thaliparamba — where he defeated P K Shyamala, wife of CPM state secretary M V Govindan — further exposes cracks in what was once seen as an impregnable stronghold. In a similar vein, the victory of former minister G Sudhakaran, contesting as a UDF independent in Ambalapuzha, came as a major shock to the party leadership.

Within the LDF, only the CPI (8) and the RJD (1) managed to win seats. None of the other coalition partners could secure a victory. Adding to the setback, a majority of ministers in the Vijayan cabinet failed to retain public support.

If Vijayan emerged as the central factor behind the LDF's rout, the UDF's comeback was clearly a collective effort driven by multiple leaders. Opposition leader V D Satheesan led the front from the front lines, even staking his political future on the outcome with a bold vow to go into political exile if the UDF failed to secure a mandate. His confident projection of a 100-seat victory played a key role in energising the Congress machinery.

More importantly, the UDF functioned as a cohesive bloc, with all constituents benefiting from the unified campaign. The IUML emerged with a strong tally of 22 seats, including its first-ever woman legislator Fathima Tahalia in Perambra, while the Kerala Congress secured seven seats. Notably, none of the UDF allies drew a blank, underscoring the breadth of the coalition's electoral success.

For the BJP, it marked a long-awaited breakthrough. State president Rajeev Chandrasekhar wrested back the Nemom seat from education minister V Sivankutty. Former Union minister V Muraleedharan secured the Kazhakuttom seat after a tight contest with CPM veteran Kadakampally Surendran, while B B Gopakumar delivered the third win in Chathannur, Kollam. These victories have been widely attributed to Chandrasekhar's campaign strategy of emphasising development over conventional political rhetoric.
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