La Niña likely by year-end, may bring colder winter in India: Experts

PUNE: Top meteorologists have warned that La Niña conditions could return later this year, potentially shaping global weather patterns and making India's winter colder than usual.The US National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center on Sept 11 said there was a 71% chance of La Niña developing between Oct and Dec 2025. The probability dips slightly to 54% between Dec 2025 and Feb 2026, but a La Niña Watch remains in effect.La Niña, the cooling phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), alters ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and has far-reaching impacts on weather worldwide. For India, it is often linked to colder-than-normal winters.The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its recent ENSO bulletin also said neutral conditions currently prevailed over the equatorial Pacific (no El Nino or La Nina). Predictions from the IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), along with other global models, indicated that these neutral conditions would persist through the monsoon. However, IMD expected a greater likelihood of La Niña emerging in the post-monsoon months.A senior IMD official said: "Our models show a good probability of La Niña developing during Oct–Dec this year (over 50%). La Niña is usually associated with colder winters in India. While the warming effect of climate change can offset this to some extent, winters during La Niña years tend to be colder compared to years without it. This year overall may thus not rank among the hottest, as rainfall during monsoon has already kept temperatures in check."Private forecaster Skymet Weather president GP Sharma said a short-lived La Niña episode could not be ruled out. He said: "The Pacific Ocean is already cooler than normal, though not yet at La Niña thresholds. If sea surface temperatures drop below -0.5°C anomalies, and this persists for at least three overlapping quarters, it will be declared a La Niña. A similar situation had occurred in late 2024, when La Niña conditions briefly appeared from Nov to Jan before turning neutral again."Sharma said even without meeting the strict thresholds, the ongoing Pacific cooling could influence global weather. "The US is already on alert for drier winters if La Niña sets in. For India, cooler Pacific waters generally translate to harsher winters and a higher chance of snowfall, especially in the northern and Himalayan regions," he said.A 2024 study by Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Mohali (Punjab), and National Institute for Space Research, Brazil, stated that La Niña conditions seemed to play a crucial role in triggering intense cold waves over north India. "During La Niña, the prominent low level cyclonic anomaly helps in advecting cold air from the higher latitudes into the country. The frequency as well as the duration of cold wave events are also found to be higher in La Niña years compared to El Niño and neutral years," the study concluded.