‘Climate change, human activity fuelling surge in lightning incidents, deaths across India’

Dehradun: Lightning -- long seen as a routine monsoon hazard -- has emerged as India's "deadliest natural disaster" mainly due to climate change and human-induced environmental changes that are driving a sharp rise in incidents and deaths across the country, a study published in Springer's ‘Natural Hazards'journal has found. Conducted by a team of eight researchers, including scientists from the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), the study warned that "without targeted mitigation measures, fatalities are likely to rise further, turning a long-overlooked hazard into a growing national crisis".Titled ‘The rising threat of lightning in India: mortality and diurnal patterns', the research analysed two decades of disaster mortality data and concluded that lightning caused 50,358 deaths between 2002 and 2022, accounting for 46% of all weather-related fatalities in India during this period. Heatwaves emerged as the second-deadliest hazard, claiming more than 20,000 lives, followed by floods ranked third with over 15,000 deaths.The paper was authored by C Jayasree, Alok Taori, Venkatesh Degala, Arun Suryavanshi, G Srinivasa Rao and Prakash Chauhan of ISRO and its affiliated institutions, along with Sanjay Srivastava of the Climate Resilient Observation Systems Promotion Council (CROPC) and Thansi Sadik of the Cochin University of Science & Technology.According to the authors, climate change and anthropogenic factors such as deforestation and atmospheric aerosols are driving the increasing frequency and intensity of lightning activity. "Warmer temperatures, higher moisture availability and greater atmospheric instability are creating favourable conditions for more intense convective storms, particularly over central and eastern India," the study said.While lightning deaths have been recorded for decades, the research pointed to a marked escalation in strike frequency in recent years, accompanied by persistently high fatality levels. Analysis of lightning detection sensor network (LDSN) data from the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) showed that every Indian state recorded an increase in lightning incidents between 2019 and 2023, with several witnessing steep surges.Madhya Pradesh emerged as the "worst-hit state", with lightning occurrences jumping from 2.8 lakh in 2019 to 16 lakh in 2023. West Bengal saw strikes rise from 56,420 to 6.2 lakh, while Andhra Pradesh recorded an increase from 65,502 to nearly five lakh during the same period. Even hill states such as Himachal Pradesh, which have relatively record fewer strikes, experienced a four-fold rise, from 4,788 to 19,664 incidents.In terms of fatalities over the 20-year period, Madhya Pradesh recorded the highest toll at 7,919 deaths (16%), followed by Odisha (6,012) and Maharashtra (5,569). Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal also reported more than 3,000 lightning-related deaths each.The study noted that fatality figures do not always directly correspond with the number of lightning strikes. Instead, socio-economic factors, including population density, outdoor work patterns, quality of shelter, access to early warning systems and documentation practices, play a decisive role. Odisha's high death toll, the authors said, partly reflect improved documentation after the state introduced compensation for such deaths.The research also highlighted dangerous diurnal patterns, with most fatalities occurring between 7 am and 6 pm, when people are most likely to be engaged in farming, construction, fishing and daily commuting.A zonal analysis based on the India Meteorological Department's six homogeneous regions showed a consistent rise in lightning mortality in Central–North-East India, covering Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and West-Central India, including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. Hilly regions recorded comparatively fewer deaths, while lightning mortality in peninsular and north-west India remained largely stable.The findings carry significant policy implications, according to researchers. "Despite lightning being India's single largest killer among natural hazards, it is not uniformly recognised as a major disaster under state disaster response frameworks," they said and called for urgent investments in early warning systems, lightning protection infrastructure, public awareness campaigns and the inclusion of lightning under disaster response funding mechanisms.