Siddaramaiah's exit may hurt Karnataka Congress’s Ahinda support base

BENGALURU: The move to replace chief minister Siddaramaiah with DK Shivakumar is likely to create more political challenges than benefits for Congress in Karnataka, considering his strong mass appeal among the party’s core Ahinda support base comprising minorities, backward classes and Dalits.A party veteran with decades of grassroots political influence, Siddaramaiah continues to enjoy significant support among Kurubas, Muslims, Dalits and several backward communities, making him one of Congress’ tallest social coalition builders.Party brass privately fear that his exit could trigger disappointment among these communities ahead of the 2028 assembly elections and weaken Congress’ carefully built social arithmetic. BJP and JD(S) are also expected to aggressively target any possible dissatisfaction among these sections to regain political ground in key regions of the state.While Shivakumar is regarded as a strong organisational leader and troubleshooter, Congress functionaries say he does not yet enjoy the same widespread emotional connect and social support base among Ahinda communities that Siddaramaiah built over decades through welfare politics and backward class mobilisation.“If Rahul Gandhi removes Siddaramaiah, the only OBC CM in Congress it will prove that he is not for OBCs,” said Basavaraj Bommai, former CM and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) MP. “His decision will impact the INDI alliance; OBC members in the alliance will not take this decision kindly.”Acutely aware of eroding its Ahinda support base, Congress’ high command is learnt to be working on a major balancing exercise.As part of the plan, it is considering PWD minister Satish Jarkiholi, an ST and Siddaramaiah confidant, for the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president’s post. “I have already expressed my intent to lead the party but none from the high command have approached me yet,” Jarkiholi said. “We will wait for the breakfast meeting on Thursday.”Besides other changes in KPCC organisation, Congress brass is also reportedly considering a “multiple deputy CM” formula if Shivakumar takes overas CM. Sources say names being discussed for the proposed posts include Yathindra Siddaramaiah (Kuruba community), Priyank Kharge (Dalit), either UT Khader or BZ Zameer Ahmed Khan (Muslim), and MB Patil or Eshwar Khadre (Lingayat).Sources also say Rahul wants Karnataka to take a cue from Kerala and install a younger cabinet. This means at least 25 of the current ministers could be dropped.But it’s the Kuruba and minority vote which has Congress worried. “The decision to ease Siddaramaiah out could backfire if he is seen to be unhappy over his exit,” a party functionary said. “If that happens, the 2028 elections could see a strong anti-Congress wave.”Party functionaries say Kuruba voters play a decisive role in 60 to 70 seats across northKarnataka, especially in regions where Lingayats remain politically dominant. With Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga, emerging as Siddaramaiah’s likely successor, there are concerns that Lingayat voters, traditionally aligned with BJP, could consolidate against Congress.Congress brass believes the party may make some gains among Vokkaligas, but it risks alienating Kuruba voters in parts of south Karnataka where the two communities are seen as political rivals.“We definitely expect a backlash from the Kuruba community in north Karnataka districts and may lose about 5% of the community votes,” said Basavaraj Rayareddi, economic adviser to Siddaramaiah.Congress is also worried about the possible impact the Special Intensive revision of electoral rolls would have on Muslim voters in north and central Karnataka. “While Muslims may have no alternative but Congress in the current political climate, Siddaramaiah’s exit will definitely leave his successor with an uphill task in convincing the minority community that he will be as accommodative as his predecessor,” a Muslim community leader said.