Gold, Silver Rate Highlights: MCX Gold, MCX Silver prices drop; International gold prices move up as all eyes on US-Iran peace deal

Gold and silver prices edged higher as global investors tracked US–Iran ceasefire developments and expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook after recent inflation data.

“Gold and silver prices have edged higher as markets assess US-Iran ceasefire developments and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook following recent inflation data,” Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments Ltd, said.

He added that domestic prices remained firm on seasonal demand expectations, with fundamentals continuing to offer support to bullion.

Gold and silver prices edged higher as global investors tracked US–Iran ceasefire developments and expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook after recent inflation data.

“Gold and silver prices have edged higher as markets assess US-Iran ceasefire developments and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook following recent inflation data,” Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments Ltd, said.

He added that domestic prices remained firm on seasonal demand expectations, with fundamentals continuing to offer support to bullion.

Yesterday, spot gold fell below the 200 DMA support at $4395 before it recovered on the news that US and Iran have agreed to a preliminary deal that would extend the ceasefire by 60 days. As per the Memorandum of Understanding/preliminary deal, Iran will normalise traffic in Strait of Hormuz in thirty days. US and Iran will discuss sticky issues like Iran's nuclear stockpile, enrichment of uranium, etc in the extended ceasefire period. However, text of the MoU is still awaited as neither the US President Trump nor Iran's Supreme Leader has commented on the deal.

Total known global gold ETF holdings at 98.51 MOz are down 0.44 MOz YTD and down by 2.42 MOz since the Iran war started. Outlook remains bearish as gold continues to behave as a risk asset.

US PCE Price Index rose 0.4% m-o-m in April (forecast 0.5%, prior 0.7%), while the Index was up 3.8% y-o-y (forecast 3.8%, prior 3.5%)-- hottest since May 2023. 1Q US GDP recorded 1.6% annualized growth rate, which trailed the estimate and the prior data of 2%.

Spot gold, after rising 0.83% to $4496 yesterday, is currently trading 0.47% higher at $4515.

Although talk of preliminary deal has reduced downside pressure on the yellow metal, lack of details of the deal will keep it range bound.

Support is seen at $4450. Resistance is at $4530/$4580, says Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

"Gold and silver prices have edged higher as markets assess US‑Iran ceasefire developments and the US Fed’s rate outlook following recent inflation data. On the domestic front, MCX gold remains firm, supported by rupee weakness and expectations of seasonal demand. We do not foresee significant selling pressure in the near term, as underlying fundamentals continue to provide support. Silver is also likely to track gold’s trend, aided by both safe-haven demand and industrial outlook,” says Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

1 Gm Gold 22 Kt: Rs 14,600.00

1 Gm Gold 18 Kt: Rs 12,255.00

1 Gm Silver: Rs 290.00

Gold ended the session higher as easing US Treasury yields and renewed hopes of a potential US-Iran agreement supported bullion, although the market remained highly volatile amid fresh military escalations in the Middle East. Earlier in the session, gold was under pressure after renewed clashes between Washington and Tehran reignited fears of energy-driven inflation. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for strikes on a US airbase in Kuwait in retaliation for American attacks on Bandar Abbas, while Kuwait confirmed missile and drone interceptions without naming the source.

The attacks marked another escalation despite repeated assertions from the US that a ceasefire remained intact. Sentiment later improved after reports suggested the US naval blockade on Iran could eventually be lifted as part of a broader peace framework, although President Donald Trump stated he was still not fully satisfied with the proposed agreement.

On the data front, US inflation readings remained elevated, with headline PCE rising 3.8% year-on-year in April and core PCE coming in at 3.3%, reinforcing concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance. Meanwhile, durable goods orders surprised positively at 7.9%, while GDP growth slowed to 1.6%, indicating a mixed economic backdrop, says Manav Modi Commodities Analyst Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Gold and silver prices began Friday’s trade on a softer note on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) as market participants balanced uncertainty surrounding the ongoing Middle East conflict against reports suggesting a possible extension of the ceasefire arrangement between the United States and Iran. Investor sentiment also remained cautious amid persistent concerns over inflation and the future trajectory of US interest rates.

In domestic trading, MCX silver futures for July 2026 delivery declined by Rs 1,518, or 0.5%, to Rs 2,68,018 per kg. Gold futures for June 2026 delivery also edged lower, falling Rs 609 to Rs 1,56,316 per 10 grams. Both precious metals had gained as much as 2% in the previous session.

Meanwhile, inflation in the United States accelerated in April at its fastest pace in three years, largely due to higher energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. The stronger-than-expected price pressures reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on hold for an extended period, potentially stretching into next year.

The US dollar continued to lose ground against major global currencies on Friday and was headed for a weekly decline after reports suggested that Washington and Tehran had reached an understanding to prolong the Middle East ceasefire and ease restrictions on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold prices posted modest gains on Friday as investors evaluated developments surrounding the proposed US-Iran ceasefire while also keeping a close watch on inflation risks and the outlook for US interest rates.

Among other precious metals:
* Spot silver climbed 0.7% to $76.17 per ounce.
* Platinum added 0.2% to $1,926.18 per ounce.
* Palladium rose 0.9% to $1,380.94 per ounce.

Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said policymakers may have to consider raising rates if inflation fails to resume a downward trajectory over the next six months.

Meanwhile, John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said current monetary policy remains appropriately positioned given the economic outlook. He added that inflation is likely to stay elevated in the near term before easing later in the year.

According to Reuters sources, Washington and Tehran reached an understanding on Thursday to prolong the ceasefire and ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, US President Donald Trump has yet to formally approve the arrangement, while Iranian state media indicated that the agreement has not been finalized.

Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,512.79 per ounce as of 0113 GMT. The precious metal was marginally higher for the week, up around 0.1%.

US gold futures advanced 0.2% to $4,543.10.

1 Gm Gold 22 Kt - Rs 14,734

1 Gm Gold 24 Kt - Rs 16,074

Silver Per Kg: Rs 2,78,615