Ahead of PM Modi’s visit to China, 5 diplomatic pain points India is pushing

India has chosen to ramp up the pressure on Pakistan after Islamabad openly issued statements supporting terrorists and separatists in the ongoing unrest in Kashmir. Responding to Pakistan’s efforts to internationalize the Kashmir issue, India raised questions over protests in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir over rigged elections and reiterated that PoK belonged to India.

PM Modi then warned Pakistan that India would raise its human rights violations in Balochistan if Islamabad continued to fan terrorism and violence in Kashmir.

Pakistan’s repeated attempts to internationalize the issue have so far evoked little response from major powers.

As Pakistan’s ‘all-weather friend’ and perhaps the only source of diplomatic support at the moment, some of India’s pressure is likely to spill over to Beijing.

This is the focal point of how India’s rising pressure on Islamabad could hit Beijing where it hurts most – economically. The $46-billion project is part of China’s bid to gain direct access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean Region. To this end it has invested heavily in the Gwadar Port in Balochistan.

The CPEC includes a road link that consists of the high-altitude Karakoram Highway and two major roads cutting south through the entire length of Pakistan. A critical part of this road runs through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

India’s decision to reinforce its legal claims on PoK as well as PM Modi’s mention of Balochistan have caused discomfort in Beijing. Though the Chinese government has not made a direct comment, Chinese think tanks have even suggested China-Pakistan joint military action against India to secure the CPEC project.

Direct economic impact apart, any comment from India that could affect the CPEC is likely to cause major consternation in China. The CPEC is part of two major Chinese projects that involve outreach to a number of neighbouring countries – the One Belt, One Road project and the Maritime Silk Road. If these are affected, it would come as a blow to China’s attempts to gain some soft power abroad.

The territorial dispute that has pitted China against a wide range of nations is proving to be a trump card in India’s hand.

After an international tribunal’s ruling that Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea were not justified, India had issued a statement appealing to all nations involved in the conflict to “exercise self-restraint” and avoid anything that escalates or complicates the dispute.

India also called on countries in the region to respect the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which is the closest thing to a global maritime legal structure.

While the statement named no country, both points could easily be read as aimed at China.

On a recent visit to India, Chinese Foreign Minister had said it was up to New Delhi to take a clear stand on whether its wants to support Beijing on the South China Sea dispute. Sources said that Beijing had put in considerable effort to ensure New Delhi does not raise the South China Sea issue anywhere.

Before heading to China for the G20 Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Vietnam, one of the countries involved in the South China Sea dispute. He is set to sign of a contract for the supply of four patrol vessels to the Vietnamese military. India could also move forward on some areas of defence cooperation with Vietnam, to China’s irritation.

China sees the area as its backyard and is likely to perceive India’s presence in the region and its rising engagement with countries like Japan and Australia could lead to encirclement by a not-entirely-friendly alliance.