'Force v Geography' Trump's Project Freedom meets Iran's residual firepower

TOI Correspondent from Washington: The United States and Iran are on the verge of resuming their shooting match in the Gulf after Teheran attacked UAE with drones and missiles in response to US efforts to militarily escort scores of stranded ships in the Strait of Hormuz under what it called “Project Freedom.”

In a high-stakes gamble that blends humanitarian rhetoric with hard power signaling, US President Donald Trump on Monday initiated a Washington-led move to escort commercial vessels out of the volatile waterway under protective US cover. But the power move was met with residual Iranian firepower as Teheran attacked UAE’s Fujairah province, forcing it to take defensive measures against incoming missiles and drones.

The US on its part claimed two merchant ships had transited through the straits but Iran rejected the assertion claiming it was in full control of the strait. The tit-for-tat announcements come amid a grinding two-month conflict in the Gulf that has choked one of the world’s most critical oil arteries and sent global energy markets — and US. domestic politics — into a tailspin.

The contest for control of the Strait of Hormuz has now crystallized into a stark reality: the US clearly commands superior military power, but Iran appears to be dictating the terms of engagement, with Tehran’s explicit warnings revealing a situation where geography and asymmetric tactics are blunting Washington’s power, forcing it to operate within red lines set by its adversary. What the US characterized as freedom is being seen by Iran as a provocation as both sides headed down the slippery path of renewed fighting on Monday.

Earlier, framing the operation as a humanitarian intervention, Trump said neutral countries had appealed to Washington to help free ships “locked up” in the strait, many running low on food and essential supplies. The US, he said, would “guide their ships safely out of these restricted waterways,” warning that any interference “will… have to be dealt with forcefully.” The operation, which began Monday morning Middle East time, was pitched as a goodwill gesture — including toward Iran — even as it carries unmistakable coercive undertones.


But on the ground, Project Freedom got off to a hesitant start. Vessel traffic through the strait remained a trickle, with most ships opting to use an Iranian-controlled traffic separation scheme rather than a US.-proposed corridor closer to Oman. Shipping executives said the plan lacks operational clarity and it unclear whether it is sustainable, echoing industry concerns that without Iranian coordination, any large-scale transit risks reigniting hostilities. Teheran’s attacks on the UAE within hours of the US move showed the fears were not unfounded.

In strictly military terms, the US retains overwhelming superiority. The US Navy can project force across the Gulf with carrier strike groups, surveillance systems, and allied bases. But geography — and politics — complicate that advantage. Iran’s proximity to the strait, combined with its arsenal of coastal missiles, drones, and fast-attack craft, gives it effective control over escalation dynamics. Even limited harassment can deter commercial shipping, as insurers raise premiums and companies refuse to risk multimillion-dollar vessels.

Shipping companies, for their part, are voting with their keels: most are staying out. Executives say Trump’s assurances fall short of the security guarantees needed to resume transit. Without a broader agreement — ideally involving Iran — insurers are unlikely to underwrite voyages through the strait. The result is a bottleneck with global repercussions, with the disruption rippling across markets from Asia to Europe.

In the US itself, the crisis is colliding with kitchen-table economics. Gas prices across the country have surged to an average $4.46 a gallon, up from $2.98 before the conflict — a roughly 50 percent increase. Analysts warn prices could breach $5 if the strait remains constrained.

The spike is putting intense pressure on Trump, who has made energy affordability a central political message. The president has responded with a mix of external appeals and strategic pressure, repeatedly calling on China and NATO allies to help reopen the waterway, whether by pressuring Iran or contributing naval assets.

Critics argue the administration’s approach has been reactive and lacks a coherent endgame. Some lawmakers are questioning whether Project Freedom risks entangling the US in a broader conflict without congressional authorization, while others contend the president has little choice but to act to stabilize global energy flows.

Trump, however, has struck a defiant tone, insisting that the operation is both necessary and limited. He has pointed to “very positive discussions” with Iran as evidence that diplomacy is still in play, even as he underscores the willingness to use force if required.