As Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to visit Washington, concerns are mounting over the trajectory of US-Iran talks and the possibility of military escalation, with Israeli defence officials warning that Tehran’s expanding ballistic missile programme poses an existential threat to Israel.
According to Israeli security sources quoted by The Jerusalem Post, senior Israeli officials have conveyed to their US counterparts in recent weeks that Israel is prepared to act unilaterally if Iran crosses what it considers a red line on ballistic missile capabilities. The discussions reportedly included operational concepts aimed at degrading Iran’s missile production and launch infrastructure.
“We told the Americans we will strike alone if Iran crosses the red line we set on ballistic missiles,” one source said, adding that while Israel does not believe that threshold has yet been crossed, developments inside Iran are being closely monitored.
Israeli officials have stressed that Jerusalem will not allow Iran to restore strategic weapon systems on a scale that threatens Israel’s existence, and that it reserves full freedom of action.
Israeli unease over limited US strike options
Several Israeli defence officials have expressed concern that US President Donald Trump could opt for a limited military response, similar to recent US operations against the Houthis in Yemen, which they fear would leave Iran’s core missile capabilities intact.
“The worry is he might choose a few targets, declare success, and leave Israel to deal with the fallout, just like with the Houthis,” a military official was quoted as saying.
Against this backdrop, brigadier general Omer Tishler, the incoming Israeli air force commander, is expected to accompany Netanyahu to Washington. Tishler will represent Israel defense forces (IDF) chief Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, as Israel currently does not have a defence attaché posted in Washington, according to The Jerusalem Post.
Iran talks raise stakes for Netanyahu visit
Netanyahu’s visit comes amid preliminary US-Iran talks held in Oman last week, which, according to statements issued by both sides, showed little indication of Tehran softening its positions.
Analysts cited by Ynet Global said the US appeared willing to consider compromises aimed at reviving a nuclear agreement that would lift sanctions on Iran.
Israeli officials fear such an agreement could strengthen the Iranian regime economically while leaving its missile programme untouched, potentially restricting Israel’s ability to act independently against emerging threats.
According to Ynet Global, Netanyahu advanced his Washington visit by two weeks, now expected to meet Trump on Wednesday, driven by concerns over the pace of negotiations and Iran’s rapid efforts to rebuild missile and drone capabilities following damage sustained during the recent 12-day conflict.
Iran views ballistic missiles as its primary deterrent in the absence of nuclear weapons and is reportedly producing hundreds of missiles each month using remaining infrastructure spread across the country, the report said.
Missiles off the table in talks
Iran has refused to discuss ballistic missiles, regional proxy groups or internal repression as part of negotiations, limiting talks to partial constraints on its nuclear programme, according to statements by Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. Tehran has rejected demands for dismantling its nuclear project or permanently giving up breakout capabilities.
Israeli officials are particularly concerned that Trump has publicly focused on Iran’s nuclear programme while avoiding references to missiles or proxy forces, raising fears in Tel Aviv that Washington could settle for a deal Israel sees as insufficient.
From Israel’s perspective, sanctions relief without missile restrictions would allow Iran to stabilise its economy and channel resources toward military projects and allied groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis.
US caution amid wider regional risks
US officials remain wary of authorising military action unless it can be short and decisive, without drawing Washington into a prolonged regional conflict.
Concerns include potential disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a spike in oil prices, and wider instability involving US allies in the Gulf.
Netanyahu is expected to press Trump to narrow the scope of concessions, accelerate negotiations, and insist on permanent dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, including zero enrichment and intrusive inspections.
He is also likely to push for limits on the range and quantity of Iran’s ballistic missiles and a phased lifting of sanctions.
If Iran rejects these demands, Israeli officials believe Netanyahu could seek US backing for a broader military operation than previously undertaken.
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