trade policy uncertainty

US courts have again blocked Trump's 10% global tariffs, deeming them unauthorized. This ruling, following earlier tariff invalidations, signals a return to WTO's MFN rates. For India, this policy instability raises concerns, prompting advice to pause Free Trade Agreement talks until US trade systems stabilize, preventing one-sided deals.

The Federation of Jharkhand Chamber of Commerce and Industries has urged the state government to permit residential-cum-commercial use in housing colonies. This demand follows the state housing board's cancellation of trade licenses and closure orders for commercial establishments, citing their residential status. The association seeks a mixed-use policy to support businesses and local economic activity.

The sell-off was widespread, extending beyond large-cap stocks to the broader market. The Nifty Smallcap 100 index was down 0.5%, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index fell more than 1%.

The Indian rupee is facing significant pressure, weakening against the US dollar due to soaring crude oil prices driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and persistent foreign fund outflows. Despite India's robust economic growth, the currency's slide continues as the Reserve Bank of India intervenes to curb volatility rather than target a specific exchange rate.

For RBI the situation is clear: The resilience of the global economy, already inflicted with trade tensions, is being tested by the conflict in West Asia. The biggest takeaway from the RBI bulletin is that India’s domestic supply chains may come under risk from a prolonged war scenario, though strong macroeconomic fundamentals provide a buffer.

Global tensions in West Asia, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are driving market volatility and influencing crude oil prices. Investors are also closely watching corporate earnings, with key results due this week, alongside crucial US economic data and the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

Asian markets showed a mixed performance today. Japan's Nikkei 225 reached new record highs, boosted by technology stocks amid the AI boom. However, rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran, tempered investor sentiment across other regions. Investors are now keenly awaiting key central bank decisions this week.

RBI is not alone in repatriating its gold reserves. Several central banks like France’s Banque de France, Germany’s Deutsche Bundesbank, Serbia’s National Bank have done the same - buy why?

Oil prices surged Tuesday, extending Monday's gains as stalled US-Iran peace efforts and Strait of Hormuz disruptions pressured market sentiment. WTI Crude and Brent Crude saw notable increases, driven by constrained Middle East oil flows and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investor focus remains on diplomatic developments and central bank policy signals.

Precious metals gold and silver are poised for continued pressure this week, influenced by US-Iran peace talks, central bank decisions, and key economic data. Analysts anticipate volatility as investors weigh geopolitical shifts, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar. Domestic gold and silver futures saw significant drops, reflecting global market trends.

India's economy is set for robust growth, projected at 6.4% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027, according to a UN report. Despite export challenges, strong domestic consumption and services sector performance are key drivers. The nation is also a leader in green job creation, with policies supporting domestic manufacturing in clean energy sectors.

NITI Aayog's report highlights the Middle East conflict's potential impact on India's trade and economy, risking the current account deficit and exchange rate. Instability also slows India-GCC FTA talks, hindering market access. Despite global uncertainty, merchandise trade remains steady, with services showing strong performance.

The 2026 election results in Bengal are a watershed moment that goes beyond simply altering the ruling party; it highlights the disintegration of a longstanding political regime. The BJP's sweeping triumph, driven by issues of illegal crossings and adjustments to voter lists, reflects a rising call for firmer governance.

US legal immigration, particularly for students and skilled workers, has seen a steeper decline than illegal entries under the Trump administration. International students face increased visa hurdles and uncertainty, while H-1B visa issuances are pressured by higher fees and stricter rules. This trend risks impacting US innovation and competitiveness.

The NFL has opted not to investigate Mike Vrabel following his involvement in a widely discussed photo controversy with Dianna Russini. Despite public speculation and Russini’s resignation from The Athletic, the league found no grounds to review Vrabel under its personal conduct policy. While this clears him of league discipline, uncertainty remains around whether the Patriots will take internal action, leaving the situation partially unresolved.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung emphasized close collaboration with India as emerging global leaders amidst geopolitical uncertainty. He highlighted shared values and complementary economies, advocating for upgraded trade agreements, defense industrial cooperation, and joint ventures in critical minerals and shipbuilding to foster mutual growth and innovation.

Today is Akshaya Tritiya, an auspicious day in the Hindu calendars, believed to bring lasting prosperity and good fortune. Buying gold on this day is considered auspicious. Experts believe that returns on gold over the last few years reinforce its role as a long-term wealth preserver.

India remains one of the strongest long-term growth stories in the world, but investors should consider diversifying their investments into other markets.

The RBI kept its policy rate at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting, citing concerns over elevated crude oil prices and global uncertainties. Governor Malhotra expressed cautious optimism, assuring markets that temporary forex measures were aimed at curbing speculation and would be reviewed. The central bank also eased capital norms for banks to support credit growth.

India’s balanced geopolitical approach has helped mitigate risks. Strong relationships across key global blocs have enabled continued access to energy and trade routes, positioning India relatively well in a fragmented global environment.

BIMTECH's annual Hermes' Dialogue 6.0 concluded with IIM Rohtak's Team LeBroom winning the national-level competition. The event, themed on energy independence and global security amid geopolitical uncertainty, saw participation from premier business schools and simulated UN/G20 deliberations. Team Magnus from FORE School of Management and Team Strategy from Shri Ram College of Commerce secured second and third positions respectively.

Even as it is confident of India’s ability to come out of the fresh global uncertainty, RBI has flagged five risks due to the US-Iran war that could negatively impact the economy.