nuclear conflict

President Trump described US naval actions enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports as "like pirates," highlighting the profitable seizure of ships and cargo. He also cited military action against Iran's nuclear program to protect the region and noted internal divisions within Iran's leadership complicating negotiations.

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Despite the modest pullback, oil prices continued to hold above $100 a barrel, as no breakthrough had been reached in the US-Iran talks and shipping movement through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained.

Iran's UN mission accused the US of misrepresenting its nuclear program at a review conference, deflecting from Washington's own violations. Tehran insists its enriched uranium is IAEA-supervised, with no diversion. Meanwhile, Iran's envoy warned that regional stability hinges on ending aggression and respecting its sovereignty, urging the UN Security Council to intervene amidst escalating tensions.

Iran is reviewing a US proposal, with a response expected soon, potentially via Pakistani mediators. Tehran prioritizes a full war cessation and sanctions relief over nuclear talks, seeking UN Security Council guarantees.

US President Trump presented a stark choice on Iran: negotiate a settlement or face military escalation, though he personally prefers avoiding conflict. He expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's deal proposals, citing internal leadership disarray. Trump also labelled domestic criticism of the war effort as 'treasonous' and defended past US actions against Iran's nuclear program, vowing not to withdraw prematurely.

Iran's Navy commander warns of a new, feared weapon soon to be unveiled, amid escalating US-Israel tensions. He claims Iranian forces conducted missile strikes on a US aircraft carrier and launched numerous reprisal attacks, while tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz. The commander also accused US forces of piracy and hostage-taking.

France's flagship aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, is heading to the southern Red Sea, signaling readiness for a potential mission to secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. This preparatory move allows for an assessment of the operational environment, aiming to reduce response time for a multinational coalition focused on freedom of navigation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to help manage Iran's enriched uranium stockpile during a call with US President Donald Trump. Trump, however, prioritized Putin's involvement in ending the Ukraine war, stating his main concern is the conflict in Ukraine. The US president also indicated a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would continue to pressure Iran over its nuclear program.

Following a deadly terror attack in Kashmir, India launched precision strikes on militant camps in Pakistan, escalating tensions to a full military standoff. Despite Pakistan's nuclear threats, India maintained a strong stance, ultimately leading to a ceasefire after significant damage to Pakistani military assets.

India’s macro exposure to the Middle East continues to be transmitted primarily through energy and critical input prices, reflecting structurally high dependence on imported crude and natural gas.

US Central Command reports 41 tankers carrying 69 million barrels of oil are blocked from offloading due to US enforcement measures, cutting off Iranian trade. President Trump has directed aides to prepare for an extended blockade, viewing it as a high-risk, effective strategy to pressure Tehran on its nuclear program.

Global oil prices have soared past $120, reaching their highest point since 2022. This surge is driven by fears of prolonged supply disruptions stemming from a US blockade of Iran and its impact on the vital Strait of Hormuz. Adding to market jitters, the UAE's exit from OPEC introduces further uncertainty regarding global energy supply management.

President Trump criticized Iran's negotiation tactics, stating they "don't know how to sign a non-nuclear deal" and urged them to "get smart soon." This comes as the US reportedly prepares for an extended blockade strategy to limit Iran's regional influence, shifting from short-term measures to sustained economic and military pressure.

The Iran conflict has entered a Cold War-like phase with financial sanctions and naval interdictions, leading to a tense stalemate. Higher energy prices are expected to persist, while the risk of escalation remains. President Trump is reportedly weighing new strikes against intensifying sanctions, aiming to force Iran into nuclear program negotiations.