macroeconomic uncertainty

The RBI cautioned about potential second-round effects from the West Asia conflict, where supply shocks could morph into demand pressures. Persistent geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs are creating global macroeconomic uncertainty, necessitating continuous assessment of inflation and growth risks.

Gold price prediction today: Any upside in gold and silver prices may face resistance at higher levels, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.

For RBI the situation is clear: The resilience of the global economy, already inflicted with trade tensions, is being tested by the conflict in West Asia. The biggest takeaway from the RBI bulletin is that India’s domestic supply chains may come under risk from a prolonged war scenario, though strong macroeconomic fundamentals provide a buffer.

Precious metals gold and silver are poised for continued pressure this week, influenced by US-Iran peace talks, central bank decisions, and key economic data. Analysts anticipate volatility as investors weigh geopolitical shifts, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar. Domestic gold and silver futures saw significant drops, reflecting global market trends.

The sell-off was widespread, extending beyond large-cap stocks to the broader market. The Nifty Smallcap 100 index was down 0.5%, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index fell more than 1%.

Infosys faces investor pressure, with its market value dropping significantly despite strong March quarter results. A subdued FY27 revenue growth forecast and industry-wide shifts towards cost efficiency and AI-driven productivity are impacting its outlook. While AI presents new opportunities, it also pressures core business margins.

Brokerage views on Infosys remain mixed, with analysts balancing near-term challenges against the company’s long-term positioning. They have expressed a measured outlook on Infosys.

NITI Aayog's report highlights the Middle East conflict's potential impact on India's trade and economy, risking the current account deficit and exchange rate. Instability also slows India-GCC FTA talks, hindering market access. Despite global uncertainty, merchandise trade remains steady, with services showing strong performance.

Foreign investors are continuing their significant sell-off in Indian stocks, withdrawing over Rs 48,000 crore in early April. This follows a record Rs 1.17 lakh crore exit in March, driven by global uncertainty and escalating West Asian tensions. Analysts cite rising crude oil prices and a weaker rupee as key concerns, with some Asian markets appearing more attractive for now.

Today is Akshaya Tritiya, an auspicious day in the Hindu calendars, believed to bring lasting prosperity and good fortune. Buying gold on this day is considered auspicious. Experts believe that returns on gold over the last few years reinforce its role as a long-term wealth preserver.

Amidst global turbulence, Shaktikanta Das emphasized India's energy security and self-reliance, highlighting its role as a stable anchor. He advised the corporate sector to build resilience and diversify. Das asserted that India's prudent policy responses and strategic autonomy have enabled it to emerge stronger from various crises.

India’s balanced geopolitical approach has helped mitigate risks. Strong relationships across key global blocs have enabled continued access to energy and trade routes, positioning India relatively well in a fragmented global environment.

According to RBI governor Malhotra, high frequency indicators till February, 2026 suggest the continuation of strong momentum in economic activity. Growth impulses continue to be supported by robust private consumption and investment demand.

India's real estate sector experienced a robust start to 2026, with private equity investment soaring to USD 1.2 billion in Q1, a 66% year-on-year increase. Office assets dominated, attracting 41% of investments, primarily in Gurugram and Pune. Domestic investors led the charge, signaling renewed confidence despite global economic uncertainties.