fiscal deficit

Pakistan's economy faces sustained pressure with double-digit inflation likely to persist due to surging global oil prices amid the Middle East crisis. Rising energy costs and regional instability are projected to slow GDP growth and widen the current account deficit, impacting the stock market and currency.

Few state polls have been as dramatic as this round. TOI explains the verdicts through 10 decisive factors, from freebies becoming entitlements to women’s safety, and from Hindu vote to Gen Z angst

Recent state election results reveal a resurgence of anti-incumbency, Hindu vote consolidation, and the enduring appeal of Narendra Modi. Factors like women's safety concerns, the rise of cash transfer schemes, and Gen Z's political awakening also played significant roles. The article delves into these ten decisive elements shaping India's electoral landscape.

India's economy shows resilience amidst global turmoil. SBI Research projects strong GDP growth between 6.8% and 7.1% for FY27. The nation navigates oil shocks from a position of strength. Domestic fundamentals provide a buffer. Potential risks like Super El Nino are noted. Inflation is expected at 4.5% with fiscal deficit around 4.5-4.6%.

India's state-run oil companies are incurring significant losses, estimated at Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 35 on diesel, due to unchanged retail prices amidst volatile global crude oil prices. Despite a government excise duty cut, these firms continue to face mounting financial strain, with potential price hikes anticipated post-state elections.

India remains committed to its fiscal deficit target for 2026-27, prioritizing capital expenditure despite Middle East tensions impacting oil prices. While austerity measures are considered, crucial infrastructure projects are protected. Officials suggest subsidy targeting and savings could offset added fiscal pressure, but economists warn of potential slippage if fuel prices remain capped.

S&P Global in its latest report titled India's Strong Fundamentals Would Cushion The Blow Of An Oil Shock says India is equipped to handle some strain. The report assumes a base case scenario of oil prices at an average of $130 per barrel for 2026 and $100 in 2027.

From cheaper autonomy to costlier capital, a post-dollar world could test India’s economic model

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted India's strong debt management, with an 81% debt-to-GDP ratio, positioning it favorably among major economies amidst global economic volatility. The ongoing Middle East conflict poses a systemic threat to global energy, impacting supply chains and economic stability, while the RBI's MPC begins deliberations amid inflation concerns.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman assured that India will maintain fiscal prudence while shielding citizens from rising global crude oil prices. She highlighted India's stable fuel prices compared to other nations, dismissing lockdown rumors as baseless and aimed at creating fear. The government has reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel to protect consumers.

Many analysts are forecasting that oil prices will remain above $100 per barrel for several weeks, pushing up the import bill and inflation. Dealers said that pressure on the rupee has been driven more by heavy foreign investor selloffs than by the West Asia conflict, with outflows crossing $13 billion this month, an all-time high.

On Budget day, TOI dissects government finances, detailing revenue sources like taxes and spending across infrastructure, welfare, and interest payments. The article explains why governments borrow to cover fiscal deficits and the implications of revenue deficits on asset creation.