Meta will surpass Google in ad revenue this year, predicts report; and here’s how it thinks Mark Zuckerberg’s company will do it

Facebook-parent Meta is expected to overtake Alphabet’s Google in net digital advertising revenue this year, a report claims. If this prediction becomes true, it will mark a major shift in the global ad market. According to a report from research firm eMarketer shared with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Meta is expected to generate more than $243.46 billion in net ad revenue, slightly more than Google's projected $239.54 billion. These estimates take into account revenue after costs for acquiring traffic and creating content, such as the money Google pays to creators and partners. The expected change is due to a mix of product strategy, AI-driven improvements, and changing user behaviour, which have helped Meta grow its advertising base, the report claims. On the other hand, Google is growing more slowly and facing more competition in its core segments. Meta’s rise is being driven in part by its investment in newer formats and platforms, including Reels, Threads, and WhatsApp, where the company focused first on building user engagement before introducing ads. According to Max Willens, a principal analyst at Emarketer, Meta has demonstrated “incredible patience” in establishing user habits across these services before monetising them.According to Emarketer, Meta's advertising growth is expected to rise from 22.1% in 2025 to 24.1% this year, even though analysts expected it to slow due to the company's size. On the other hand, Google's global ad growth is expected to remain at 11.9%.A key contributor has been Meta’s use of artificial intelligence to improve content recommendations and ad delivery. The company said its AI recommendation systems increased Reels watch time in the US by more than 30% year over year in the most recent quarter, enabling it to show more ads. Reels alone is expected to generate $50 billion over the next 12 months, the WSJ reported.AI is also influencing how advertisers create campaigns. Meta said the revenue run rate of its video-generation tools reached $10 billion in the fourth quarter, reflecting increased adoption of automated ad creation tools across its platforms. However, this expansion is accompanied by significant spending, with Meta’s capital expenditure expected to reach $135 billion this year.Google’s advertising business, which includes search, YouTube, and its network of partner sites, remains a major force but is facing pressure on multiple fronts. Competition from companies like Amazon is affecting search behaviour, as more users begin product searches directly on e-commerce platforms rather than traditional search engines.This year, Emarketer says that Google's share of the US search ad market will drop to 48.5%. This is the first time in more than ten years that it has dropped below 50%. At the same time, new competitors such as AI-powered platforms like OpenAI and social media sites like TikTok are likely to further change how people find information online.Google's varied ways of making money also make it harder for ads to grow. YouTube Premium and similar services make money through subscriptions, but they also reduce the number of people who see ads, limiting how much revenue ads can generate. Despite the projected leadership shift, the broader digital advertising market remains concentrated among a small group of companies. Meta, Google, and Amazon are expected to increase their combined share of the global digital ad market to 62.3% this year, up from 59.9% last year, according to Emarketer. However, both Meta and Google declined to comment on the projections.The report says that Meta's current success is due to its strategy around AI, short-form video, and gradual monetisation. However, competition and changes in how users interact with digital platforms will continue to change the advertising landscape in the years to come.