Who will win the 2025 NFL MVP? Top candidates and early predictions

The race for the 2025 NFL Most Valuable Player award is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent years. With the regular season now complete and the finalists announced, attention has turned to which star will take home the league’s most prestigious individual honour.Five players remaining in contention include Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, Christian McCaffrey and Matthew Stafford. But as voting patterns, statistics and expert opinions suggest, the battle has effectively narrowed to two quarterbacks: Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams and Maye of the New England Patriots.Matthew Stafford's performance in 2025 will go down in history. The veteran quarterback had the most passing yards (4,707) and touchdown passes (46) in the NFL, which are two stats that are usually quite important in MVP voting.Stafford also delivered in the biggest moments. According to league data, 26 of his touchdown passes came in the second half or overtime, underlining his reputation as a late-game closer. At age 37, he became only the second quarterback in NFL history to throw 46 touchdowns in a season after turning 35.Rams coach Sean McVay has been his loudest supporter, praising Stafford’s command of the offense and his influence in the locker room. History also favours Stafford’s profile — six of the last seven quarterbacks to cross 4,500 yards and 45 touchdowns have won the MVP.Drake Maye quietly produced one of the most efficient quarterback seasons the league has ever seen. The Patriots star led the NFL in completion percentage (72%), QBR (77.1) and yards per attempt (8.9).Sources strongly favour Maye. His completion percentage over expected ranked as the best single-season mark since tracking began in 2016. He also added value with his legs, rushing for 450 yards and four touchdowns.What strengthens Maye’s case further is context. Unlike Stafford, he played behind a weaker offensive line and without elite receiving support. Yet he still outperformed most of the league in efficiency. Several analysts believe this “doing more with less” narrative could sway voters.Betting markets have swung back and forth between Stafford and Maye since midseason. Stafford closed as a slight favourite, but bookmakers admit that a Maye win would cause larger payouts which suggest strong public backing for the Patriots quarterback.Opinions are split almost evenly among experts from ESPN, some voters lean toward Stafford’s traditional counting stats, while others favour Maye’s advanced efficiency and all-around impact.With margins this thin, the 2025 NFL MVP may come down to a handful of votes making this one of the most unpredictable MVP races in years.