ICC World Cup: How Pakistan can qualify for the semi-finals

NEW DELHI: Riding on Fakhar Zaman's blistering century after New Zealand put up a mammoth 401/6 on the board in Bengaluru on Saturday, Pakistan beat the Kiwis in a rain-hit match to miraculously stay alive in the race to the semifinals of the ICC World Cup.
Pakistan's 21-run (DLS) win was fashioned by opener Fakhar Zaman's blistering 126 not out off 81 balls and an unbroken partnership of 194 runs for the second wicket with skipper Babar Azam (66* off 63 balls).
Pakistan reached 200/1 in 25.3 overs, after which relentless rain allowed no more play and Pakistan were declared winners as they were ahead of the par score at that stage according to the DLS method.

New Zealand's 400-plus total was made possible by Rachin Ravindra's third century (108 off 94 balls) of the tournament. He added 180 runs with skipper Kane Williamson, who scored 95 off 79 balls.
Pakistan will now have to win their last league match against England and hope that results in other matches turn out to be in their favour for a finish in the top four of the points table. They currently have 8 points from 4 wins in 8 matches and are placed fifth. New Zealand also have 8 points but are ahead of Pakistan on net run rate and placed fourth.
Afghanistan too are on 8 points, but they have a match more in hand compared to Pakistan and New Zealand. However, their net run rate is behind that of Pakistan and the Kiwis.
Here's a look at the scenarios for Pakistan to go through to the semi-finals:

SCENARIO 1
Pakistan have the benefit of playing their last league match against England (Nov 11) after New Zealand conclude their round-robin campaign against Sri Lanka (Nov 9). However, if the Kiwis lose to the Lankans and Pakistan prevail over England, they will go to 10 points, ahead of the Kiwis with 8. But they would then also want Australia and South Africa to beat Afghanistan and prevent them from reaching 10 points.
If Aghanistan win one of their remaining matches, both Pakistan and Afghanistan will be on 10 points and net run rate will come into play. In the unlikely scenario of Afghanistan beating both Australia and South Africa in this equation, they will go to 12 points and qualify for the semis.

SCENARIO 2
In the event of New Zealand beating Sri Lanka, Pakistan getting the better of England and Afghanistan losing both their matches, it will boil down to the net run rate to decide who between Pakistan and New Zealand progresses to the knockout stage.
New Zealand's current net run rate (+0.398) is already better than Pakistan's (+0.036), and if they beat SL it will improve futher. In this case, Pakistan will have to do the math to know the exact margin by which they need to beat England in order to take their net run rate past that of New Zealand's.
However, if Aghanistan also win one of their remaining two matches, they too will be on 10 points. But their net run rate is still in the negative (-0.330), which keeps them third in the race to the prize spot in the semis if it comes down to net run rate.