West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates: Pollsters predict upset for Mamata, give slight edge to BJP

Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections released on Wednesday indicated a sharply divided verdict. While most surveys gave the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a slight edge, one poll projected a strong victory for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).

The poll of polls pointed to a neck-and-neck contest between the two main rivals, estimating around 145 seats each for the BJP and the TMC in the 294-member Assembly, with others likely to secure about four seats.

In their projections via exit polls, the pollsters on Wednesday projected Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning West Bengal in the 2026 Assembly elections, whose polling concluded today evening.

The exit poll by Chanakya Strategies has projected 150-160 Assembly seats in the BJP's corner while placing Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) with 130-140 seats of the total 294 Assembly seats in the state.

Meanwhile, other parties are being projected to win six to 10 Assembly seats in West Bengal as per Chanakya Strategies.

According to exit poll projections by Matrize, the BJP is winning the West Bengal Assembly polls with 146-161, while TMC is projected to win 125 to 140 seats.

Meanwhile, as per Matrize too, other parties are being projected to win six to 10 Assembly seats in West Bengal.

The exit poll by Poll Diary has projected 142 to 171 Assembly seats in the BJP's corner, while placing Mamata Banerjee's party with 99 to 127 seats in West Bengal. Meanwhile, other political parties are projected to win five to nine Assembly seats.

These projections come after the final phase of polling for the high-octane West Bengal assembly elections concluded at 6 PM on Wednesday, with voter turnout hitting remarkable numbers at 90% before the closing hour.

On exit polls in West Bengal, BJP leader Gourav Vallabh expressed confidence that the party will secure a decisive mandate and form the government.
"4 May TMC would be gone from Bengal, and BJP would form a good governance model. Exit polls already show the BJP crossing 155–160 seats, and I am confident the final results will be even higher," he said.

On West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026, NK Mishra, Special Poll Observer, said, "It was very heartening that this phase has gone by and large peacefully, contrary to the general belief that it will be much more violent as it has happened in the past. I must thank all the people involved in this process, that is, the state police, CAPF, poll officials, and each and every one who has made this happen..."

On the reports of violence during the polls, he says, "I don't have any reports on law and order which attract repolling so far. I will not say that on account of law and order, there will be a repoll in any of the polling stations... On the law and order issue, we have been getting complaints throughout the day, and we addressed all the complaints and resolved them within the shortest possible time."

He further adds, "We got some complaints from Bhabanipur also, but it was resolved..."

JVC’s exit poll indicates one of the closest contests, projecting the BJP at 138–159 seats and the TMC at 131–152 seats, while others may win 0–2 seats. The overlapping ranges suggest a highly competitive election, where the final outcome could hinge on a small number of marginal constituencies.

Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections on Wednesday pointed to a dramatic contest, with most several pollsters giving the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) an edge over the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the state.

According to People’s Pulse, the TMC could emerge ahead with 177–187 seats, while the BJP is projected at 95–110. However, most other surveys indicate a BJP advantage. Matrize has projected 146–161 seats for the BJP against 125–140 for the TMC. P-Marq has given the BJP a wider lead at 150–175 seats, placing the TMC at 118–138.

On exit polls for West Bengal elections, BJP candidate from Nandigram and Bhabanipur, Suvendu Adhikari, said, "I'm telling you the exit poll from the ground. BJP is getting more than 180 seats. BJP is forming the government with a majority. Hindus have cast their votes freely..."

On Exit Polls for West Bengal Elections, TMC candidate from the Kamarhati Assembly constituency, Madan Mitra said, "Suvendu Adhikari will get two slaps: one from Nandigram, one from Bhabanipur. Mamata Banerjee is definitely coming, and we are crossing 200 seats..."

On exit polls for West Bengal, TMC MP Saugata Roy said, "TMC will do very well. High voter turnout is in favour of TMC. It is against the BJP because people are angry with the role of the Election Commission, which is in a conspiracy with the BJP...I am confident that Mamata Banerjee will become Chief Minister for the fourth time..."

Even as multiple exit polls give the BJP an edge, the TMC remains competitive in several projections. People’s Pulse projects a strong lead for the party with 178–187 seats, while JVC places it at 131–152 seats and Matrize at 125–140 seats. These figures suggest that the ruling party continues to enjoy significant support across the state.

The aggregated poll of polls for the 2026 West Bengal elections points to a closely fought contest, with the BJP projected at around 149 seats, closely followed by the Trinamool Congress at 140 seats, and others at about 5 seats. The numbers suggest a slight edge for the BJP, though not a decisive lead, indicating a tight and competitive race.

The narrow margin highlights the intensity of the battle across regions, with both major parties within striking distance of a majority. Even small swings on counting day could significantly impact the final outcome. The poll of polls thus sets the stage for a high-stakes wait leading up to May 4.

According to People’s Pulse, the Trinamool Congress may emerge as the clear frontrunner with 178–187 seats, well ahead of the BJP, which is projected to win 95–110 seats, while others could secure 2–3 seats. This projection differs sharply from several other surveys and suggests that the TMC’s core support base remains intact. If these numbers are accurate, it would point to a strong mandate in favour of the ruling party.

Exit polls released by People’s Pulse and Chanakya show sharply contrasting projections for the West Bengal Assembly elections 2026, highlighting a highly divided political picture in the state.

According to People’s Pulse, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is projected to secure a strong majority with 178–189 seats, while the BJP is expected to win 95–110 seats and Congress 1–3 seats.

In contrast, Chanakya’s projection suggests a tighter contest, with the BJP slightly ahead at 150–160 seats, the TMC at 130–140 seats, and others likely to win 6–10 seats.

The differing numbers underline a split verdict among pollsters, with some indicating a decisive TMC win while others point to a BJP edge or closely fought race.

The West Bengal Assembly elections 2026 appear headed for a closely fought finish, according to a combined reading of major exit polls.

Across surveys by P-MARQ, JVC, Matrize, People’s Pulse and Chanakya, projections swing between a tight BJP edge and a strong TMC challenge, with some showing the ruling party ahead while others suggest a saffron surge in the state. The range of estimates reflects one of the most competitive political battles in recent years.

When averaged into a poll of polls, the picture settles into a narrow gap: the BJP is projected to win around 149 seats, the TMC around 140, while others are expected to secure about 5 seats in the 294-member Assembly.

The numbers suggest a deeply divided mandate, with both the BJP and TMC remaining within striking distance of power as the state awaits the final verdict.

P Marq Exit Poll - West Bengal

TMC - 118-138
BJP - 150-175
Congress - 02-06

The second phase of the West Bengal assembly elections recorded a massive 89.99% voter turnout till 5 pm, according to Election Commission data.

Purba Bardhaman led with a turnout of 92.46%, followed by Hooghly (90.34%), Nadia (90.28%), Howrah (89.44%) and North 24 Parganas. South 24 Parganas also saw high participation, recording around 89.7%.

Political parties are reading the strong turnout in their favour. In the first phase, which saw a record 91.78% voting, the Trinamool Congress claimed it would win at least 100 of the 152 seats, while the BJP expressed confidence of securing around 110 seats.

The first phase of polling was held on April 23, and the main contest in the state is seen between the ruling Trinamool Congress and the BJP.

The second phase is being viewed as a crucial test for the TMC, as voting took place in its traditional strongholds in South Bengal and Kolkata.

This phase covers 142 of the total 294 seats in the state.

Over 2.22 crore voters — including 1,64,35,627 men and 1,57,37,418 women — were eligible to cast their votes in this phase.

Key constituencies in this round include Bhabanipur and Tollyganj.

TMC leader Abhishek Banerjee posted on X: "Central Forces under Amit Shah have become BJP’s PRIVATE ARMY- A gang of licensed thugs unleashed on the people of Bengal.

In Udaynarayanpur, an elderly man went to cast his vote with his son. Too frail to walk unaided, his son tried to help him into the booth. Central Forces pushed and manhandled both. The old man collapsed, was rushed to Amta Hospital and declared dead on arrival.

Since dawn, these Central Forces have been terrorising ordinary citizens- slapping women, assaulting the elderly, attacking even children. This is the SITALKUCHI MENTALITY of 2021: cold-blooded, merciless violence against unarmed civilians. BJP paid a heavy price for the blood of innocents in 2021. They will pay an even heavier price in 2026.

And to the JALLADS roaming Bengal: it doesn’t matter which state you come from. It doesn’t matter whose political patronage shields you. Every single one of you involved in this barbarism will be hunted down and made to face the full force of the law. Your reign of terror will end in total ruin."

Supporters of the TMC candidate from Bhowanipore and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee gathered at the Ekbalpur area in the Bhowanipore constituency.

89.99% approximate voter turnout recorded till 5 pm in the second and final phase of West Bengal elections 2026.

West Bengal Congress chief Subhankar Sarkar said, “Election Commission is a complete failure. It is working in a one-sided manner with the central and state forces. Voters are having to wait in long queues, senior citizens are not being taken care of…BJP and TMC project rivalry, but they are not at all fighting each other…both parties have taken advantage of the Election Commission. I believe, after May 4, Bengal will see a new chapter, Congress will form the government…”

Exit polls in India often face structural limitations that can lead to inaccuracies. Many voters refuse to disclose their actual choice, while others may not reveal their true preference due to political sensitivity or social pressure. Sampling may also miss small but decisive local shifts, especially in a diverse multi-party system. Combined with the complexity of converting vote share into seats under the first-past-the-post system, even small errors can lead to significantly different final projections.

TMC candidate from Bhabanipur and chief minister Mamata Banerjee showed her inked finger after casting her vote.

She said, “…From yesterday night they started atrocities, and they arrested so many of our people. It is a contempt of court. I have never seen this type of democracy… Trinamool is winning… CRPF cannot torture like this. There is no state police at any booth. They have captured it all. They should secure the border. Instead of doing that, they are securing one political party… I have never seen this. I have been fighting my election since 1984, but the atrocities are terrible…”

West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 | TMC candidate from Bhabanipur and chief minister Mamata Banerjee, shows the victory sign as she arrives at the polling station in Kolkata to cast her vote.

Different polling agencies often produce different projections because they do not follow identical methodologies. They may select different polling stations, use different sample sizes, or even frame questions differently during voter interviews. Additionally, agencies vary in how they treat non-responses and how aggressively they apply weighting formulas. Even the vote-to-seat conversion models differ, leading to noticeably different predictions despite using similar raw data environments.

Once responses are collected, they are not directly used as final results. Pollsters apply statistical weighting to correct for imbalances in responses, such as underrepresentation of certain genders, castes, regions, or turnout patterns. This adjusted data is then converted into vote share estimates. Finally, complex models are used to translate vote shares into seat projections, which is especially difficult in India’s first-past-the-post system where small vote shifts can change outcomes significantly.

In India, exit poll agencies select a representative sample of constituencies and polling stations based on region, past voting trends, and demographic diversity. On polling day, field agents are stationed outside these booths and approach voters after they cast their vote. Participation is voluntary, and respondents may answer verbally or through confidential slips or digital devices. This on-ground interaction forms the raw dataset for all further analysis.

JD(U) MP Sanjay Kumar Jha on Wednesday said feedback from West Bengal indicates a “mood of change” among voters, expressing confidence that the NDA will emerge victorious when results are declared on May 4.

Speaking to reporters in Patna, Jha said signals of this shift began emerging after the first phase of voting and have continued during the ongoing second phase. He added that based on these trends, the final outcome is likely to favour the NDA.

West Bengal is voting in Phase 2 of its assembly elections with the political temperature rising in the battleground. After an unprecedented 93.2 per cent voter turnout in Phase 1, despite scattered violence, the state is now set for what could be the defining chapter in the battle for the country's second-largest assembly.

The record turnout in round one has energised both the ruling Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, each claiming that the people’s enthusiasm points to momentum in their favour.

BJP candidate Asim Kumar Sarkar on Wednesday said that if repolling is held in West Bengal after May 4, it could lead to President's Rule in the state.


BJP candidate Asim Kumar Sarkar on Wednesday said that if repolling is held in West Bengal after May 4, it could lead to President's Rule in the state. While thanking the Election Commission for "peaceful polling", he also alleged EVM malfunctions and irregularities, demanding repolling in affected booths and corrective action wherever required.


Speaking to ANI, Sarkar said," I would like to thank the Election Commission. I had never seen such peaceful polling in Bengal. There were sporadic incidents but EC had said in the all-party meeting that there would be a repoll if any issues happened. Central forces are very active."


He further claimed that if repolling is conducted after May 4, central forces may no longer be present and made a political assertion regarding governance in the state thereafter.


"Repolling happens after 4th May, they won't be in power at that time. From 5th May onward, there would be President's Rule. So, you decide whether you want that or a peaceful polling...EVMs were malfunctioning at all the booths I visited; I do not know the reason, though. I have received 28 EVM malfunction reports in my constituency. I have complained; I had never seen such high instances of EVM malfunction in one constituency," Sarkar added.


Referring to an alleged attack on a BJP polling agent, Sarkar said voting should be held peacefully and demanded corrective action, including repolling where necessary.


On an attack on a BJP polling agent today, he says, "Voting will still be done there, there will be repolling. Voting should happen peacefully...Repolling should indeed be done wherever such incidents happen." He added, "BJP will come to power in Bengal 100%."


West Bengal Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) on Wednesday said that the polling booths with taping of any EVM button will undergo repolling after the BJP alleged irregularities in Falta under the Diamond Harbour constituency.


"If reports of taping of any button come in, that should be verified and noted. If true, those booths will go for a repoll," the West Bengal CEO said.


Meanwhile, West Bengal recorded a voter turnout of 39.97 per cent until 11 am, as polling for the 142 seats in the second phase of the Assembly elections is underway.


According to the Election Commission of India, Purba Bardhaman stood at the top, with a voting percentage of 44.50 per cent, followed by Hooghly, which has witnessed 43.12 per cent polling until 11 am.


Kolkata North and Kolkata South recorded a voter turnout of 38.39 per cent and 36.78 per cent, respectively.


The counting of votes will take place on May 4.

West Bengal recorded a voter turnout of 39.97 per cent until 11 am on Wednesday, as polling for the 142 seats in the second phase of Assembly elections is underway.

According to the Election Commission of India, Purba Bardhaman stood at the top, with a voting percentage of 44.50 per cent, followed by Hooghly, which has witnessed 43.12 per cent polling until 11 am.

Kolkata North and Kolkata South recorded a voter turnout of 38.39 per cent and 36.78 per cent, respectively.

Nadia also recorded a sizeable turnout of 40.34 per cent.

The main fight in West Bengal in the 2026 elections is between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP. Earlier in the day, West Bengal LoP Suvendu Adhikari inspected the polling booths in Bhabanipur constituency. TMC MP Abhishek Banerjee cast his vote at the Mitra Institute polling booth in Bhabanipur.

The second phase of the polling is widely seen as the 'litmus test' for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), as voting moves into the party's traditional fortresses in South Bengal and Kolkata.

The second phase covers 142 out of 294 seats in West Bengal. The total electorate is around 3.21 crore, with 1,64,35,627 men, 1,57,37,418 women and 792 transgender voters.

1,448 candidates are in the fray, including 220 women at 41,001 polling stations, with over 8,000 managed entirely by women.

While 142 seats are up for grabs, all eyes are on the 'Big Five' urban contests. Apart from the high-stakes seat of Bhabanipur, Tollyganj, the heart of the Bengali film industry, is a high-profile, star-studded battle.

In the 2021 elections, the TMC dominated this specific belt, winning 123 of these 142 seats. For the BJP, this phase is about making inroads into the urban "bhadralok" vote and the Matua community. For the TMC, it is about holding the line to ensure a fourth consecutive term for Mamata Banerjee.

The counting of votes will take place on May 4

Different polling agencies often produce different projections because they do not follow identical methodologies. They may select different polling stations, use different sample sizes, or even frame questions differently during voter interviews. Additionally, agencies vary in how they treat non-responses and how aggressively they apply weighting formulas. Even the vote-to-seat conversion models differ, leading to noticeably different predictions despite using similar raw data environments.

Why exit polls can be inaccurate in India despite detailed methodology

Exit polls in India often face structural limitations that can lead to inaccuracies. Many voters refuse to disclose their actual choice, while others may not reveal their true preference due to political sensitivity or social pressure. Sampling may also miss small but decisive local shifts, especially in a diverse multi-party system. Combined with the complexity of converting vote share into seats under the first-past-the-post system, even small errors can lead to significantly different final projections.

During West Bengal Elections 2026 campaigning in Panihati, BJP candidate Ratna Debnath, mother of the RG Kar Medical College rape and murder victim, alleged intimidation by TMC workers. She said, "TMC goons who tried to attack me were using abusive language. They said I was doing business in my daughter's name. They misbehaved with me and said that they would see me on 4th May. I complained to the police and demanded their arrest, but the police asked me to leave the spot. I asked them to allow my Chief Election Agent to be with me, but they did not allow it. After I complained at the police station, they came and removed all the TMC workers who were present there."

Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters exit polling booths, where they are asked which party or candidate they just voted for. Unlike opinion polls, which attempt to predict voter behaviour before elections are held, exit polls aim to capture actual voting behaviour in real time. However, even exit polls are still based on samples of voters rather than a complete count, which means they provide an estimate rather than an exact result. This makes them useful for trend-spotting but not definitive outcomes.

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee on Wednesday visited multiple polling booths in her Bhabanipur constituency, where voting was underway, and alleged that central forces and election observers were acting at the behest of the BJP.

Bhabanipur, considered her political bastion, witnessed a high-profile contest as Banerjee faced Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari in what was seen as a symbolic rematch of Nandigram, where he had defeated her in the 2021 Assembly elections.

Departing from her usual routine of voting later in the day, the TMC supremo stepped out of her Kalighat residence before 8 am and visited several polling stations, including those in the Chetla area of south Kolkata.

Incidents of violence and vandalism were reported from parts of West Bengal during the early hours of polling in the second phase of the Assembly elections on Wednesday, police said.

The incidents were reported from multiple locations, including Chapra, Shantipur, Nimtala and Bhangar, officials added.

A BJP polling agent was allegedly assaulted by “miscreants linked to the ruling TMC” at booth number 53 in Chapra in Nadia district, party leaders said. A senior police officer confirmed that the individual, identified as Mosharef Mir, was admitted to a local hospital.

BJP candidate Saikat Sarkar said the incident took place after the mock poll began. “TMC supporters obstructed the BJP agent and hit him on the head, causing injury,” Sarkar said. A complaint has been lodged with the local police station, while the TMC denied the allegations.

Around 18.39 per cent of the 3.21 crore electorate had cast their votes in the first two hours of polling across 142 constituencies in the second and final phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections, a senior Election Commission of India official said.

By 9 am, Purba Bardhaman recorded the highest turnout at 20.86 per cent, followed by Hooghly at 20.16 per cent.

Turnout stood at 18.5 per cent in Nadia, 17.81 per cent in North 24 Parganas, 17.28 per cent in Kolkata Uttar, 17.25 per cent in South 24 Parganas, and 16.81 per cent in Kolkata Dakshin.

Voting was underway across 142 constituencies in the second and final phase of the West Bengal assembly elections, with extensive security arrangements in place.

Polling commenced at 7.00 am, with voters queuing outside booths in Kolkata, Howrah, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, Nadia, Hooghly and Purba Bardhaman, regions that together form the state’s political and electoral core.

A total of 3,21,73,837 electors are eligible to vote in this phase, including 1,64,35,627 men, 1,57,37,418 women and 792 third-gender voters. Polling is being conducted across 41,001 stations, all of which are under webcasting coverage.

With the high-stakes second and final phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections 2026 concluding on Wednesday, attention has now shifted to exit poll projections, which are set to be released after 6.30 pm in accordance with guidelines issued by the Election Commission of India.

Phase 2 covered the remaining constituencies of the 294-member Assembly and has witnessed intense political activity across districts. As per the poll panel’s rules, exit poll results can be published only 30 minutes after voting concludes in the final phase.

The projections are expected to be aired across major television news channels and digital platforms soon after the embargo is lifted. Exit polls are conducted by surveying voters immediately after they cast their ballots, offering an early indication of possible outcomes based on actual voter responses, unlike opinion polls that gauge public sentiment ahead of elections.