Assembly election results: Kerala throws Congress a lifebuoy, but boat still in choppy waters

NEW DELHI: In cricketing analogy, Congress got off the mark with Kerala. The party notched its first victory since winning Telangana in Dec 2023, and finally showed some resilience after its commendable show in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls was followed by a nosedive that saw it surrender solo winnable turfs and post poor tallies in alliances.

Kerala is a sigh of relief for Congress that appeared to have lost the skill of winning. Haryana and Maharashtra were winnable, but it came up way short.



In coalition states, Congress did poorly in the winning NC alliance of J&K, and in the losing alliance (MVA) of Maharashtra with its lowest ever tally in the massive state. Jharkhand, deftly managed by senior partner JMM, was the only redeeming feature.

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In this backdrop, Kerala’s big win is special for Congress, especially as the Left stronghold was viewed to be a close contest. But cancelling the Kerala effect was the decimation in Assam.

A decade out of power in its one-time stronghold, the confident attempt at revival by appointing MP Gaurav Gogoi at the helm came a cropper.

The party seems to have no answer to the religious polarisation set in motion by BJP. Congress’s continuing moribund state in West Bengal and the dismal show in Tamil Nadu as a junior ally to DMK shows it has not progressed much since the advent of Modi-led BJP decimated it nationally.

The resilient show in 2024 polls in what was an extremely challenging election had raised hopes in the party about the future. But the elections that followed disappointed Congress cadres no end. The 2026 results, despite the solitary win, betray a paralysing stagnation.

For Congress, the challenges remain as they were post-May 2014 — its decimation in the heartland and BJP’s success in painting it with the ‘Muslim brush’. Moving forward, Congress has to find a way to confront BJP in bipolar states that span the north, besides Gujarat and Goa.

The party showed spunk in Dec 2018 when it swept Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan.

But it lost them five years later. A big handicap for Congress has been BJP’s unbridled push for polarisation, which has delivered even in states like Chhattisgarh, MP, Gujarat, which have small Muslim populations. Pushed to the brink, the party did think out-of-the-box in the interim.

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Bharat Jodo Yatra was a bold attempt to neutralise ‘polarisation’, as Rahul Gandhi walked the country’s length and breadth to target BJP on communalism, marginalisation of underprivileged communities. The yatra had a direct impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Its accounts seized, its ranks dented by defections and the campaign dominated by Ayodhya and associated issues, Congress and INDIA bloc allies still managed to run BJP ragged. Congress managed to win agood chunk of seats in Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and with allies in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra. It did well on southern turfs of Karnataka and Telangana.

But just when Congress felt that religious mobilisation had run its course, it lost to poor management in Haryana and Maharashtra polls.

And since then, it has been confronted by resurgent BJP push for polarisation, while ECmandated SIR, poor campaign plan and lax allies have not helped the matters.

As BJP wins new territories to add to its rock solid northern and western states, Congress faces the imperative of winning on BJP’s heartland hegemonies if it has to stand a chance in the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.
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