Assam polls: Can governance trump anti-incumbency against Himanta Sarma

NEW DELHI: The BJP-led NDA, if it wins Assam on May 4, will secure a hat-trick of terms in the northeastern state, while chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma will be elected to office for a second consecutive term.The BJP formed its first government in Assam in 2016, ending the Congress’ 15-year tenure under stalwart Tarun Gogoi. Sarbananda Sonowal succeeded him.After securing re-election in 2021, the BJP appointed Sarma as chief minister, while Sonowal was accommodated in the Union cabinet.The former Congressman, who joined the BJP in 2015, held multiple portfolios—including finance and health—under Sonowal. He led the party’s charge in the current campaign.Sarma contested from his Jalukbari stronghold in Kamrup Metropolitan district. He has represented the constituency since 2001 and is seeking a sixth consecutive term.To prevent the NDA from returning to power and to capitalise on the 10-year anti-incumbency against the ruling alliance, opposition parties—led by the Congress—came together under Lok Sabha MP Gaurav Gogoi, the party’s state unit chief and son of Tarun Gogoi. He was joined by Akhil Gogoi, chief of the Raijor Dal, and Lurinjyoti Gogoi of the Assam Jatiya Parishad.Facing a potential five-year anti-incumbency, Sarma is banking on his government’s welfare delivery, particularly its flagship Orunodoi scheme. With over 26 lakh women beneficiaries receiving monthly financial assistance, the scheme has helped create a loyal base of what the party calls “labharthi” voters.For Sarma, the twin issues of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) remain central, though no longer in the form of mass protests. Instead, they have been absorbed into competing political narratives. The BJP has framed its position as one of protecting indigenous identity and land, amplified by controversial eviction drives against the "illegal Bangladeshis."The BJP has turned the northeast into a political fortress. Whether it retains Assam or loses the state will be known on Monday.Exit polls have predicted a landslide for the NDA. However, they are not always accurate.