India closely monitoring Af-Pak escalation; backs Taliban but wary of full-blown conflict

India was closely monitoring the situation as Afghanistan and Pakistan seemed poised for a dangerous escalation, with Islamabad declaring that the two countries were in an “open war” following Pakistan’s airstrikes on “terrorist hideouts” in Afghanistan and the latter’s retaliatory action. Unconfirmed reports said that senior Taliban leaders were killed in Pakistan’s latest air assaults on Kabul but the Indian side could not independently verify such claims.

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has unravelled dramatically in the past few years, after the initial euphoria in Islamabad over the return of the Taliban in 2021. Pakistan has blamed Tehreek-i-Taliban (TTP) or Pakistan Taliban for terrorist attacks on its soil and on several occasions launched targeted strikes against TTP or its splinter groups’ alleged hideouts in Afghanistan. According to Islamabad, Baloch insurgents also find sanctuary in Afghanistan. Kabul has mostly responded with what it calls necessary and measured military action.

On this occasion though, Pakistan has directly targeted the not just terrorist infrastructure but also Afghanistan military facilities in Kabul and other cities. What happens next, and if there’s a full-blown war or not, will likely depend on whether the Taliban are prepared to go further up the ladder of escalation.

India’s own ties with the Taliban have seen a stunning turnaround during this period, initially on the back of its large-scale humanitarian assistance to Kabul and now the commitment to fulfil the development needs of the Afghan people, circumventing the lack of international recognition for the regime. India’s response so far to the Pakistan-Afghanistan crisis so far has been a manifestation of this new reality that Islamabad must contend with.

India has continued to maintain that Pakistan’s cross-border adventurism resulting in civilian casualties is nothing but a ploy to deflect attention from its domestic failures. The Indian government called Pakistan’s airstrikes earlier this week an attempt to externalise its internal failures. India also strongly backs Afghanistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence. The Taliban reciprocated suitably to these gestures as they endorsed, much to Pakistan’s chagrin, a mention of J&K as a part of India in a joint statement issued after Afghanistan foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s unprecedented visit to India last year in October. The Taliban have also dismissed Islamabad’s claims that India is using Afghanistan and its alleged links with the TTP to target Pakistan.

However, while an antagonistic relationship between the two countries allays fears about Pakistan’s longstanding policy of using Afghanistan for strategic depth, a major military escalation that would imperil regional stability is more than what India would bargain for. In fact, it would come at the least opportune time for India as the government, after a period of relative peace, looks to resume its development work in the country including through the launch of new projects.

Following Muttaqi’s visit, and based on assurances from the Taliban that Afghanistan will not allow its soil to be used for anti-India activities, India restored its embassy in Kabul to further augment its development, humanitarian and capacity-building initiatives for the Afghan people. India has undertaken several projects in Kabul and other areas, including construction of hospitals and trauma centres while also looking to expand trade and investment ties with Afghanistan.

Importantly, India is considering an offer from the Taliban to invest in the mining sector, something which China is already actively pursuing. India is also looking to work with Afghanistan on hydroelectric projects to fulfil the local energy needs. For India, this is the time to reap the benefits of a strong working relationship it has built with the Taliban and a regional war, or its possible spillover effects like a humanitarian or refugee crisis, will likely stymie India’s nascent but expanding footprint in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.




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