Study warns the next solar storm could wipe out satellites and cause space debris within 3 days

A new study warns that huge satellite networks could crash in just days if a massive solar storm knocks out their controls, turning Earth’s jammed low-Earth orbit into a real disaster zone.

Our daily lives depend on numerous satellites buzzing around Earth like cars in rush hour, keeping our phones connected, GPS on track, and the internet streaming.

Low-Earth orbit is getting seriously crowded with satellites, all flying past each other at high speed. Right now, roughly two satellites come within 1 kilometre of each other about every 22 seconds. To stop them from crashing, operators on the ground are constantly adjusting their paths. This delicate juggling act only works if communication and navigation systems remain stable and reliable.

Can solar storms really disrupt our daily lives?

A new research paper, led by Princeton PhD student Sarah Thiele, looks at what happens when things go wrong, especially during powerful solar storms. These storms can increase atmospheric drag, which slows satellites down and pulls them into slightly lower orbits. That tiny change can take them onto paths where they are more likely to cross each other, forcing operators to carry out many more avoidance manoeuvres.

What would happen if a solar storm disrupts satellites?

But the bigger danger isn’t just the drag; it’s losing control altogether. Strong solar storms can damage or disrupt the navigation and communication networks that satellites and ground teams depend on. If those systems fail, commands cannot be sent properly. In the worst case, operators could lose real-time control of large groups of satellites altogether.

To measure how quickly things could spiral, the researchers created a new risk tool called the CRASH Clock, short for Collision Realisation and Significant Harm. Using this, they modelled what happens when satellites suddenly cannot receive commands. In those loss-of-control situations, collisions start happening very quickly.

If a storm hits, satellites may have very little time to prepare

The study says that by June 2025, if satellites lose control during a solar storm, a major chain of crashes could begin in just 2.8 days. Back in 2018, there would have been 121 days before things reached that point. This sharp drop shows how packed and dangerous low-Earth orbit has become. Even losing control for 24 hours is risky, with about a 30% chance of a serious collision.

This could create a lot of debris in space

The Kessler Syndrome describes a worst-case scenario in which one collision creates a cloud of debris that then strikes other satellites, creating even more junk, and so on. This chain reaction could fill key orbits with so much debris that normal satellite operations become almost impossible. It could also make launching new satellites into those regions far too risky.

If communication or control networks fail, there may be very little time to recover before things spiral out of hand. The paper also looks at an extreme scenario: a Carrington-scale solar storm, like the massive event recorded in 1859, still the strongest known. The researchers say a storm of that strength today would likely overwhelm current control systems. Humans could lose command of many satellites for more than three days, potentially destroying a large share of the satellite infrastructure that modern life relies on.