Mamata Banerjee vs Suvendu Adhikari: TMC leading in Bhabanipur in trends

NEW DELHI: All eyes are on the high-stakes battle between West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and the assembly’s opposition leader Suvendu Adhikari as counting of votes take place on Monday.All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Banerjee re-contested from Bhabanipur seat, which went to polls in the second phase on April 29. Meanwhile, Adhikari campaigned as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate for both Nandigram and Bhabanipur. Candidates representing BJP, TMC, CONG, CPM, SUCI(C), BNARP, IND are contesting in Bhabanipur. According to trends, Mamata is leading from Bhabanipur but it stays a close contest between her and Adhikari.In 2021, Banerjee had contested against Adhikari in his home turf, Nandigram. She lost to the BJP leader by 1,956 votes. Now, Adhikari takes on Banerjee in Bhabanipur — the CM’s home constituency. Bhabanipur has long been a stronghold for Banerjee. She has represented the seat as an MLA since 2011 and has not lost an election there. After becoming CM in 2011, she secured a decisive bypoll victory from Bhabanipur by 54,213 votes.In 2016, her margin narrowed as she defeated Congress candidate Deepa Dasmunshi, backed by the Left, by 25,301 votes, while the BJP secured 26,299 votes.In 2021, TMC retained Bhabanipur, with Sovandeb Chattopadhyay defeating BJP’s Rudranil Ghosh by 28,719 votes. BJP’s vote share rose to 35.2%, signalling a growing presence.Banerjee later returned to contest the Bhabanipur bypoll, winning by 58,835 votes and securing her third term as CM.The electorate in Bhabanipur has also undergone changes, with 41,068 names removed from the rolls, reducing the voter base by around 20% to about 1.6 lakh.An analysis by Souptik Halder, along with Ashin Chakraborty and Sabir Ahamed, found that 56.7% of voters flagged under the ‘under adjudication’ category are Muslims, compared to their 20% share in the constituency’s population as per the 2011 Census.Earlier findings had shown Muslims accounted for 22.7% of voters marked as ‘Absent, Shifted, or Dead/Duplicate’ (ASDD), with the ‘unmapped’ share at around 26%, roughly in line with their population share. However, this rose sharply to 52% in the ‘logical discrepancy’ list.According to Chakraborty, despite Bhabanipur being a mixed-community constituency, Muslims are disproportionately represented among those under scrutiny. Halder added that booth-wise analysis of 2021 and 2024 data suggests that if voters under adjudication are unable to vote, the TMC’s winning margin could drop significantly, and in some booths even disappear.