Fissures in Bengal’s Muslim bloc, voters look for other options

Kolkata: Minority voting in Bengal's Muslim-dominated districts moved away from the long-assumed pattern of near- total consolidation behind Trinamool, reshaping electoral calculations in a state where Muslim voters influence 143 of 294 assembly seats. In Murshidabad, Malda and parts of South 24 Parganas, minority votes were split among Congress, CPM, ISF, AJUP, and, in some pockets, even BJP. That matters in a state where Muslims made up 27% of the population in the 2011 census, and are numerous enough in several districts to decisively affect outcomes.

For years, Trinamool benefited from being seen as the main anti-BJP force, drawing tactical minority support. The latest pattern suggests that assumption has weakened. In key districts, like Murshidabad, Malda, North Dinajpur, South 24 Parganas and Birbhum, minority-heavy constituencies showed signs of diversification rather than bloc voting.



Murshidabad and Malda were especially significant because of their long Congress and Left histories. That residual organisational strength appears to have revived. Instead of backing Trinamool as the strongest state-wide challenger to BJP, sections of Muslim voters chose local alternatives with stronger district credibility. Former Trinamool functionary Humayun Kabir, who floated a new party — Aam Janta Unnayan Party (AJUP) — before the polls, won by over 58,000 votes in Rejinagar and by more than 27,000 votes in Nowda, both in Murshidabad district, where Muslims are in majority. This pushed Trinamool to the third spot behind BJP.

In the Kandi Assembly constituency, where BJP won by over 10,000 votes, Trinamool's Apurba Sarkar (David) lost; Congress and AIMIM together polled over 54,000 votes in this seat.

In Beldanga, BJP's Bharat Kumar Jhawar won by over 13,000 votes while Congress and AJUP cornered 86,000 votes. In Karimpur, Trinamool lost by over 8,000 votes. CPM, AJUP and Congress together polled 34,000 votes.

Domkal displayed a similar pattern, with CPM getting 1,07,882 votes, ahead of Trinamool's 91,586 and Congress's 30,453. Such fragmentation does more than cut Trinamool's margins; it can reorder contests by keeping BJP competitive without requiring major expansion of its own base. In North 24 Parganas, Indian Secular Front attracted substantial Muslim votes — the party polled 23,000 votes, more than the margin by which the BJP candidate won against Trinamool.

Analysts see both political and psychological change. Congress gains in Malda and Murshidabad suggest minority voters are prioritising local viability over statewide consolidation. The result is a more competitive and less predictable map in minority-dominated Bengal, weakening Trinamool's reliance on these districts, and helping BJP. Social entrepreneur Imran Zaki said, "The formation of a new govt in Bengal by BJP is an important moment for the state. For Muslims and other minority communities, this should not be a time of fear, but of engagement." Political scientist and former RBU VC Sabyasachi Basu Ray Chaudhury said, "Locally, Humayun Kabir managed to hold ground but in places like Malda and Murshidabad, a big chunk of the vote went to Congress." Political analyst Udayan Banerjee said, "This is the first time in Bengal's history after Independence that the minority community did not vote collectively."

(Inputs from Dwaipayan Ghosh & Sukumar Mahato)