Nemom: Now or never for the lotus

Thiruvananthapuram: The result in Nemom will test whether the ‘lotus bloom' sighted in Kerala's political backwaters since 2016 was a natural phenomenon or a contrived one. If BJP manages to reclaim the seat after a five-year gap, it would suggest that its expansion in Kerala can move faster than once imagined, with ripple effects across adjoining constituencies. If not, the bloom may prove evanescent, leaving little lasting imprint on the state's polity in the near future.Before the significant boundary changes of 2008, Nemom was largely a UDF stronghold, though LDF occasionally tasted success. The constituency now covers a substantial portion of the south-western areas of the Thiruvananthapuram corporation. When O Rajagopal trumped incumbent MLA V Sivankutty in 2016 by around 9,000 votes, even he refused to admit that people voted for his politics. He attributed it instead to personal connections, famously quipping that some voters may have supported him out of sympathy as the 86-year-old had already lost 15 elections in a row.BJP lost the seat to CPM in the 2021 election, though the votes polled in favour of Sivankutty dipped by over three percent compared to 2016. The single factor that catapulted Sivankutty to victory was the presence of K Muraleedharan as Congress candidate. Muraleedharan amassed over 36,000 votes, compared to the fewer than 14,000 polled in favour of the UDF candidate in the 2016 election."It was a grand strategy, and Muraleedharan executed it with precision—a sweet revenge. He managed to engineer a real three-cornered fight and sealed Kummanam Rajasekaran's fate. But I don't think that strategy would work every time," said S Sharafudheen, a native of Karakkamandapam. According to him, unlike last time, Muslim voters in the constituency are unlikely to be split between LDF and UDF candidates. "Sivankutty stands a chance either way. So, I think it's time to vote wisely," he added.Unlike in the past, BJP has been careful not to be overtly flamboyant in its display of Hindutva politics and its associated paraphernalia. BJP candidate Rajeev Chandrasekhar speaks very little about the politics he represents; instead, he focuses on projecting himself and BJP as a pro-development, corruption-free alternative. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Chandrasekhar secured a clear lead in the Nemom segment, polling 61,227 votes against Shashi Tharoor's 39,101. That advantage has prompted him to concentrate on Nemom.Further boosting BJP morale is its performance in the 2025 local body elections, where it won 15 of the 23 corporation wards in Nemom—an unprecedented showing. Never before has the party appeared so powerful in the constituency. If it fails to convert this momentum into an assembly victory, it may not encounter a similar chance soon."The party lost in 2021 because of an understanding between the Congress and CPM. That won't work now," said S Padmakumar of Poojappura. "Educated voters will back Rajeev Chandrasekhar's development plank. Unless Congress strikes a deal again, he has the edge."Demographically, Nemom presents a complex electoral mosaic. Muslim and Christian minorities together account for roughly 30%of the electorate. SDPI has declared support for Sivankutty, while Jamaat-e-Islami is seen as leaning towards UDF, though both are expected to engage in strategic voting at the ground level.Congress leaders reject attempts by both BJP and CPM to downplay the prospects of their candidate, K S Sabarinadhan. They remain confident that a substantial share of minority votes, along with the party's traditional support base across communities, will consolidate behind him. They also point to public dissatisfaction over the Nemom Cooperative Bank controversy as a potential advantage for UDF. Ultimately, in a tight three-cornered contest, the outcome will hinge largely on the share of votes Congress manages to secure.