Muslim disgruntlement in Davanagere South poses a challenge and opportunity

Davanagere: Once known as the Manchester of Karnataka for its cotton mills, Davanagere South today reflects a complex social mixture spanning rural clusters in the south and several northern municipal wards with a significant Muslim and working-class population. The Muslim vote plays a decisive role. The community accounts for an estimated 90,000 of the 2.3 lakh voters, making them the single largest bloc. Although Muslim candidates have rarely emerged frontrunners, their voting pattern has historically influenced both the winner and the margin. This bypoll, triggered by the death of Congress veteran Shamanur Shivashankarappa, is the first electoral test for the party without its long-time strongman. It has already exposed fault lines within Congress after the denial of a ticket to a Muslim candidate sparked unrest. BJP hopes to take advantage of internal squabbling in Congress. The saffron party has fielded T Srinivas Daskariyappa, a Nayaka Scheduled Tribe figure. He takes on Samarth Mallikarjun, grandson of Shivashankarappa and son of minister SS Mallikarjun and MP Prabha Mallikarjun, who are banking on the family's strong clout. Both are first-time candidates. For Congress, the challenge lies in consolidating the minority vote, besides concerns raised by SC Left groups over internal reservation. The numbers highlight the complexity. Of the 25 candidates in the fray, 14 are Muslims. Though rebel Sadiq Pailwan, a popular face who worked closely with Shivashankarappa, withdrew under pressure and backed the Congress nominee, his name will continue to figure on the EVM. Of the other 13, SDPI's Afsar Kodlipete and Khader Adil Basha, backed by former Union minister CM Ibrahim, have campaigned extensively and are expected to attract disaffected voters. This could split community votes. A Congress functionary admitted the initial absence of minister BZ Zameer Ahmed Khan from the campaign hurt outreach efforts. "He is the party's trouble-shooter on minority issues, but his reported differences with SS Mallikarjun have not gone down well with the community," the functionary said. "Though party leadership forced him to campaign on the last two days, the message was loud and clear." But senior functionaries insist there is no threat. Muslim candidates have traditionally failed to secure large vote shares — barring the 2013 election when JD(S) nominee Syed Saifulla Karekatte secured over 26,000 votes. "Muslims are upset over denial of the ticket, but not to the extent of defeating Congress and helping BJP," said a senior party functionary, who has been working in the constituency for the past two weeks. Congress continues to rely on its Ahinda base, strong organisational network and Shamanur's legacy to retain the seat it has held since 2008. After Muslims, Lingayats form the major bloc, followed by Kurubas, Marathas, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. Sensing an opportunity over Muslim discontentment, BJP softened its tone, avoiding sharp Hindutva rhetoric and reaching out to minorities with the slogan ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas'. The party also undertook door-to-door outreach, especially in minority-dominated areas, marking a tactical shift. But organisational limitations remain, with no presence reported in 62 of the 284 polling booths. Local issues have also surfaced, with NDA partners BJP and JD(S) targeting Congress over alleged inaccessibility of representatives and uneven development compared to parts of the city. Still, it's the Muslim vote which would prove decisive.