Taiwan & Thucydides Trap: How close have the US and China come to conflict before?

For decades, Taiwan has been one of the world’s most dangerous fault lines, a small island sitting at the centre of a growing rivalry between the world’s rising superpower and its reigning one.

Now, tension has returned sharply to the global spotlight after Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared to invoke the idea of the “Thucydides Trap” during his recent summit with US President Donald Trump in Beijing.

At their meeting, Jinping directly cautioned Trump that mishandling Taiwan could trigger “clashes and even conflicts”.

Xi also raised the broader question of whether both powers could “transcend the Thucydides Trap” and build a more stable global order.

The phrase refers to the theory that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, war becomes more likely than peace.

The term was popularised by American political scientist Graham Allison, drawing from the ancient Peloponnesian War. The Greek historian Thucydides famously wrote, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

Today, many see a modern parallel. China as the rising power, the United States as the existing superpower and Taiwan as the flashpoint where the rivalry could turn dangerous.

Xi made it clear during the summit that “the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China–US relations,” warning that if handled poorly, it could jeopardise the entire relationship.

Trump, meanwhile, struck a softer tone publicly, calling Xi a “great leader” and emphasising friendship, though the two sides remained far apart on Taiwan, trade, and regional security.

But the fear surrounding Taiwan is not new. In fact, the US and China have repeatedly come dangerously close to confrontation over the island for more than 70 years.

Why Taiwan matters so much

To understand why Taiwan has become central to US-China tensions, one must first understand what the island represents to both sides.

China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must eventually reunify with the mainland, by force if necessary. Beijing considers the issue a matter of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national prestige.

The United States officially follows the “One China Policy,” meaning it formally recognises Beijing rather than Taipei diplomatically. However, Washington also maintains deep unofficial ties with Taiwan and supplies it with weapons under the Taiwan Relations Act.

Over time, Taiwan has become far more than a territorial dispute.

The island now sits at the centre of global semiconductor production, critical shipping routes, Indo-Pacific military strategy and the broader US-China power struggle.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company alone produces the world’s most advanced semiconductor chips, which power everything from smartphones and artificial intelligence systems to fighter jets and data centres.

Experts also argue that Taiwan is far from vulnerable in any potential conflict scenario.

“Taiwan is no pushover when you compare Taiwan and Ukraine”, said Prof Srikanth Kondapalli, Chinese Studies expert, JNU, as quoted by news agency ANI.

A conflict over Taiwan would therefore not remain regional for long. It could disrupt global trade, technology supply chains, shipping routes, financial markets, and the world economy within days.

The origin: From civil war to a divided China (1949 onwards)

Following the Chinese Civil War, the defeated Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan in 1949, establishing the Republic of China (ROC), while the Communist Party formed the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland.

The Taiwan Strait, separating mainland China from Taiwan and nearby islands, quickly became a militarised frontier, with both sides viewing offshore islands as strategically vital for possible future offensives.

According to the US state department, early US policy initially signalled limited willingness to intervene. But this changed dramatically after the Korean War began in 1950, when the US Navy deployed the Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to prevent escalation and contain Communist expansion.

This marked the beginning of sustained US involvement in the Taiwan question.

The first Taiwan Strait crisis: 1954–55

The first major military crisis over Taiwan erupted just a few years after the Chinese Civil War.

After Mao Zedong’s Communist Party took control of mainland China in 1949, the defeated Nationalist government led by Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan and continued calling itself the legitimate government of China.

Beijing saw this as unfinished civil war business.

A few years later, the first major crisis erupted in 1954 when the PRC began shelling ROC-controlled islands such as Jinmen (Quemoy), Mazu (Matsu), and the Dachen Islands, all located close to the Chinese mainland but held by Taiwan.

As documented by the US state department, these islands were not just symbolic but were strategically located just miles from key Chinese coastal cities like Xiamen and Fuzhou, making them military launch points in the eyes of both sides.

The crisis escalated because the PRC saw ROC-controlled islands as threats to mainland security. Also, the US increasingly aligned with Taiwan under the Cold War containment policy and Washington feared the collapse of Taiwan’s defence morale.

In response, the US and Taiwan signed the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty (1954), formally committing Washington to Taiwan’s defence.

In 1955, the US Congress passed the Formosa Resolution, giving President Dwight Eisenhower authority to defend Taiwan and nearby islands “as he deems necessary”.

The crisis nearly escalated further, with US policymakers even considering extreme military options like using nuclear weapons, before China eventually signalled willingness to negotiate.

Talks began in Geneva in 1955, temporarily easing tensions.

The second Taiwan Strait crisis: 1958

Just three years later, tensions exploded again.

In 1958, the PRC resumed heavy artillery bombardment of Jinmen and Mazu, taking advantage of global distractions such as US military involvement in Lebanon, according to Britannica.

China also attempted to block resupply of ROC garrisons on offshore islands, escalating fears of a broader conflict.

The US responded by resupplying Taiwan’s forces on the islands, maintaining naval deterrence in the region and reinforcing its commitment to Taiwan’s defence.

At several moments during the crisis, fears emerged that fighting could spiral into a direct US-China war, potentially even nuclear escalation.

Eventually, the crisis de-escalated, but did not truly end. Instead, both sides entered an unusual pattern of intermittent shelling that continued for decades, until US–China diplomatic normalisation in 1979.

The 1995–96 Taiwan Strait crisis: The closest modern confrontation

For decades after the Cold War, tensions remained relatively controlled. But in the mid-1990s, Taiwan once again brought Washington and Beijing to the edge.

The crisis began after the US granted a visa to Taiwan’s President Lee Teng-hui in 1995, breaking long-standing diplomatic convention.

The move angered Beijing, which viewed the trip as encouraging Taiwanese separatism.

China responded with large-scale military exercises as it fired missiles near Taiwan’s waters, simulated amphibious invasion drills and deployed over 100,000 troops in Fujian province.

The United States answered by deploying two aircraft carrier battle groups — USS Nimitz and USS Independence — to the region in one of the largest American military shows of force in Asia since the Vietnam War, signalling overwhelming military deterrence.

The confrontation became known as the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis.

The crisis ended once Chinese exercises concluded, but it fundamentally reshaped regional security thinking: Taiwan was now officially a potential US–China flashpoint in the post-Cold War era.

For many analysts, it marked the beginning of modern US-China strategic rivalry.

The crisis also deeply influenced China’s military thinking. Beijing concluded that it lacked the military capability to challenge US power near Taiwan, helping trigger decades of rapid Chinese military modernisation.

The 2001 spy plane incident

The next major scare came not from missiles, but from an accident in the sky.

In April 2001, a US Navy EP-3 surveillance aircraft collided with a Chinese fighter jet near Hainan Island.

The Chinese pilot was killed, while the damaged American plane made an emergency landing on Chinese territory. Its 24-member crew was detained by China for days, sparking a serious diplomatic standoff between the two powers.

The Hainan Island incident proved how easily accidents between military forces could escalate into broader crises.

It also exposed a problem that remains relevant today that the more aggressively both militaries operate near each other, the greater the risk of miscalculation.

South China Sea tensions and the military build-up

Through the 2010s, US-China rivalry steadily intensified beyond Taiwan itself.

China rapidly expanded its military presence in the South China Sea, building artificial islands equipped with military infrastructure, radar systems, and missile platforms.

The United States responded with “freedom of navigation” operations, sending warships through disputed waters to challenge Beijing’s territorial claims.

Near-collisions between Chinese and American warships and fighter jets became increasingly common.

At the same time, China dramatically modernised the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), expanding naval power, missile capabilities, cyber warfare units, anti-ship systems and air force deployments around Taiwan.

Washington, meanwhile, strengthened alliances with Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Philippines as part of its broader Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China’s growing influence.

Pelosi’s Taiwan visit and the new era of escalation

The biggest turning point in recent years came in 2022 when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan despite strong warnings from Beijing.

China reacted furiously.

Beijing condemned Pelosi’s visit right away. The foreign ministry stated that it harms peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

It said in a statement that the visit “has a severe impact on the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and seriously infringes upon China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

“These moves, like playing with fire, are extremely dangerous. Those who play with fire will perish by it,” the statement added.

On the military front, the PLA launched unprecedented military drills around Taiwan, fired missiles over the island, and effectively simulated a blockade.

Chinese warships and aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line in large numbers, something that had previously been relatively rare.

Many analysts described the episode as the most dangerous Taiwan crisis since 1996.

More importantly, it fundamentally changed the military environment around Taiwan.

Since Pelosi’s visit, Chinese military activity around the island has become far more aggressive and routine. Large-scale PLA drills, naval patrols, and fighter jet incursions are now frequent occurrences.

A second escalation also followed in April 2023 after Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen met US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the US. China again launched military exercises involving aircraft carriers, mass air incursions, and temporary exclusion zones.

The US again deployed naval assets to deter escalation, while regional allies such as Japan and Australia strengthened contingency coordination.

How Taiwan becomes the centre of global rivalry

In 2026, Taiwan has become the centrepiece of a much larger geopolitical contest, rather than merely a regional dispute.

The US-China rivalry now stretches across semiconductors, artificial intelligence, trade, cyber warfare, military alliances, shipping routes and technological dominance.

Washington has increased arms support and military coordination with Taiwan and regional allies, while Beijing has repeatedly warned that outside interference crosses its red lines.

The latest Trump-Xi summit in Beijing also reflected both the tension and the caution shaping the relationship.

While both leaders publicly stressed stability and economic cooperation, Taiwan also dominated closed-door discussions. According to news agency AP, Xi reportedly warned Trump against increasing military or political support for Taipei, calling Taiwan the “core of China’s core interests.”

Trump, meanwhile, reportedly pushed for maintaining freedom of navigation and regional stability while also seeking to reduce economic tensions between the two countries.

After returning to the US, Trump raised new concerns about Washington's support for Taiwan. He called the island “a little bit of a difficult problem” because of China’s geographic and military advantage.

“When you look at the odds, China is a very, very powerful, big country. That’s a very small island. Think of it; it’s 59 miles away. We’re 9,500 miles away. That’s a little bit of a difficult problem,” Trump said while speaking to Fox News about Taiwan.


Yet Xi’s remarks about historical power transitions drew the most global attention because they appeared to revive direct discussion of the Thucydides Trap at the highest political level.

Why experts fear miscalculation more than deliberate war

Despite the intense rivalry, most analysts believe neither Washington nor Beijing actually wants a full-scale war.

The economic consequences alone would be catastrophic.

China and the United States remain deeply interconnected economically despite ongoing tensions. A conflict over Taiwan could trigger global recession, semiconductor shortages, financial panic, shipping disruptions, energy shocks, cyber attacks and supply chain collapse.

Analysts also warn that any conflict would carry catastrophic human and strategic costs, making escalation risks even more dangerous.

“A minimum of one lakh Chinese soldiers will be killed if there is an invasion by China on Taiwan”, said Kondapalli.

Yet experts increasingly worry not about deliberate war, but accidental escalation.

Military aircraft now routinely operate near each other. Warships shadow each other at sea and

political rhetoric has hardened on both sides.

In such an environment, even a small incident, a collision, a misread military exercise, or political provocation, could spiral rapidly.

It can be compared with the danger of not a planned invasion but to the chain reactions that triggered World War I.

Also, some analysts hear the echoes of the Cuban Missile Crisis, where superpowers repeatedly approached the brink before stepping back.

Is the Thucydides Trap inevitable?

Not everyone believes conflict between China and the United States is unavoidable.

Supporters of the Thucydides Trap theory may argue that history shows rising and ruling powers often collide eventually.

But critics also note that nuclear deterrence, globalisation, and economic interdependence make direct war far less likely today than in previous centuries.

There are also strong incentives for restraint.

China’s economic growth depends heavily on global stability and trade access. The United States, meanwhile, understands that a war over Taiwan could become one of the costliest conflicts in modern history.

Still, the danger lies in how repeated crises gradually normalise confrontation.

Each military drill. Each naval standoff. Each sanctions round. Each political provocation.

Together, they slowly increase the possibility that one future crisis may not cool down as earlier ones did.

That is why Xi Jinping’s remarks during the Beijing summit resonated far beyond diplomatic symbolism.

The fear surrounding Taiwan is now something beyond whether China or the United States wants war.

It is whether the world’s two most powerful nations can continue competing intensely without eventually sliding into it.