What's next for Japan after far-right election surge?

Japan's coalition government led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost its parliamentary majority in Sunday's election after large gains made by right-wing populist parties, in a sign that right-wing populism and polarization are now also undermining political stability in Japan.

For now, Ishiba has vowed to hang on as prime minister, despite the second election debacle in nine months. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost a snap election last October, making it a minority party ruling with a coalition.

Ishiba has said he would "humbly accept" the result and "continue to take responsibility for national affairs."

However, Ishiba's continuation as prime minister no longer depends on him alone. A strengthened opposition could topple him at any time with a vote of no confidence, even if these parties are not united enough to forge a governing coalition themselves.

Ishiba also faces the threat of a rebellion within the LDP, which has governed Japan almost continuously for 70 years and has always controlled at least one chamber of parliament.

Conservative LDP heavyweight Taro Aso has said he "could not accept" Ishiba as prime minister.

However, potential successors appear to be staying under cover for the time being. "Nobody wants to replace Ishiba in these difficult times for the LDP," political scientist Masahiro Iwasaki from Nihon University in Tokyo told DW.

Japan's ruling coalition barely misses

The ruling coalition of the LDP and the Buddhist Komei Party missed its self-imposed target of retaining a majority in the upper house of parliament, with 125 of 248 seats up for reelection. The coalition missed by only three seats, which was an unexpectedly close result.

The LDP is now likely to try to win over some independent MPs to its side. Even if this succeeds, the government is still on shaky ground.

One of Ishiba's options would be to expand his governing alliance. However, the major opposition parties have already declared that they would not enter into a grand coalition. Apparently, they doubt that Ishiba will remain prime minister and LDP leader in the medium term.

This leaves the 68-year-old politician with the option of selective cooperation with individual opposition parties, which he has been doing since losing his majority in the more important lower house at the end of October.

However, this will not succeed without painful concessions, for example, on tax issues. Before the election, Ishiba rejected opposition demands for a reduction in VAT on food. Instead, he promised every citizen a cash payment of 20,000 yen (€116/$135) by the end of the year to compensate for the loss of purchasing power due to high inflation.

Japan's right-wing surge

According to Japanese media, the LDP's election debacle comes as many voters are dissatisfied with the three-year decline in real wages caused by high inflation, along with a sharp increase in foreign workers and tourists.

Two young, right-wing populist parties benefited the most from this, but the largest opposition group, the constitutional democratic party of former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, hardly benefited at all.

The Sanseito party, which is only five years old, increased its number of seats in the upper house from two to 14 and the Democratic Party for the People from nine to 17.

The Sanseito party went into the election campaign with the openly xenophobic slogan "Japanese First" and has accused the government of pursuing a "policy of concealed immigration."

The number of foreign residents in Japan grew by 10% in 2024 to just under 4 million. The Sanseito Party claims that recruiting foreigners as workers to address an ageing and shrinking population will disrupt Japan's social harmony.

Founder Sohei Kamiya has said his party has been modeled after Germany's far-right alternative for Germany (AfD) party, and other European far-right parties.

The democratic party for the People, with its charismatic leader Yuichiro Tamaki, is now the third strongest force in the party system, which lends political weight to its main demand for tax cuts.

"Both right-wing parties were able to capitalize on the anger of the younger generations towards the political system," analyst Tobias Harris told DW, citing percieved gerontocracy, inflation and stagnant wages as key factors.