Uganda's longtime president will be sworn in for another term as his son emerges as de facto ruler

KAMPALA: Forty years. That's how long Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has been in power.

The 81-year-old will be sworn in on Tuesday to extend his presidency over a further five-year term that may well be his last - although not necessarily the last for the Museveni family.

The president's son and presumptive heir, Army Chief Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, oversaw days-long rehearsals of the military parade that will animate the eighth inauguration of Museveni, with Russian-made Sukhoi fighter jets flying noisily over official ceremonial grounds in Kampala, the Ugandan capital.

Many Ugandans now accept that Museveni's presidency - the only one that millions of people have known - is nearing its end. What remains uncertain is the nature of the transition and how orderly things would be in the time he has left in office.

Two possible routes to the top

Kainerugaba looks poised to take over. He has declared his wish to succeed his father and said recently that the mission is unstoppable.

Still, his path is narrow and could go either way: either a bloodless but unconstitutional takeover by Kainerugaba or a constitutional amendment that allows ruling-party lawmakers, who have an overwhelming majority, to pick him as Museveni's successor.

An electoral win is seen as a hurdle too high for Kainerugaba, whose challengers would include opposition leader Bobi Wine, the popular entertainer who has twice run for president and rejected the outcome of the January election that gave Museveni his next term.

Anita Among, the parliamentary speaker, said last month that legislators would do everything possible to assist Kainerugaba in his pursuit of the presidency.

"For the sake of MK, just assure MK that we will do whatever it takes," Among told a group of lawmakers celebrating the general's birthday, mentioning Kainerugaba's initials. "In the 11th parliament, the opposition got swallowed. In the 12th parliament, it is going to be walloped."

In addition to the speaker, many other leaders have been scampering to show allegiance to Kainerugaba. While their moves display a quest for political survival, they also underscore Kainerugaba's rise as Uganda's de facto leader as his father ages and relies more on the army chief to exercise authority.

"Many Ugandans close to power have learned this lesson. That the president is old and exhausted, both intellectually and physically," Andrew Mwenda, a close ally and friend of Kainerugaba, wrote last month in The Independent online newspaper. "He has a limited ability to monitor many things across a large spectrum of sectors."

Kainerugaba, 52, joined the army in the late 1990s, and his rise to the top of the armed forces has been controversial, with critics dubbing it the "Muhoozi Project" to prepare him for the presidency.

Museveni and Kainerugaba often denied the existence of such a scheme, but it has become apparent in the last two years that hereditary rule is possibly what the president prefers.

Museveni, who has not said when he would retire, has no rivals within the ruling party, which is why many believe the military will have a say in choosing his successor.

"While people are waiting for the legal transition from Museveni, the de facto transition has already happened," said Angelo Izama, an analyst who runs the Uganda-based Fanaka Kwawote think tank. "Kainerugaba, more than the president, is the final voice on defence and security matters."

A more confrontational style than his father's


Kainerugaba's associates describe him as a dedicated military officer who often eschews ostentatious displays of wealth. He attended military schools in the US and Britain before taking charge of a presidential guard unit that has since been expanded into an elite group of special forces.

In addition to his military duties, he is the founder of a political activist group known as the Patriotic League of Uganda. Its members and well-wishers range from ministers to businesspeople.

But Kainerugaba lacks the public charisma and folksy style of Museveni, who has kept power in part by striking deals with his political rivals and even convincing some to serve in his government. Kainerugaba's style is more confrontational, expressed often in offensive online posts. He has ordered the arrest of multiple generals, including some known to have once been his friends, over alleged corruption.

Museveni first took power by force in 1986 as the leader of a guerrilla force whose goal was to democratize Uganda after years of chaos and civil war. He said at the time that Africa's problem was leaders who overstayed their welcome. Much later, he changed his stance to say his criticism was of leaders who prolonged their rule without an electoral mandate.

Museveni, a US ally on regional security, is often credited with presiding over relative peace and stability. But many others see an increasingly authoritarian streak at odds with his early promise of democracy. Term and age limits have been scrapped, and some rivals have been jailed or sidelined.

Lawmakers recently passed a punitive bill whose stated purpose is to deter foreign interference, but it drew widespread concern over its potential to hurt the work of non-governmental organizations and opposition groups.

The legislation forbids an "agent of a foreigner" from obtaining grants or other monetary support from external sources exceeding 400 million Ugandan shillings - roughly USD 110,000 today - within 12 months without the approval of the interior minister.

Wine's party, the National Unity Platform, condemned the legislation as "unconstitutional, irrelevant and brought in bad faith to further persecute those with divergent views."