gtri

India faces pressure from the EU and US to adopt data exclusivity in trade deals, but a gtri report warns this could harm its agrochemical industry. Such provisions would create extended monopolies, delay generic pesticide approvals, increase import reliance, and raise costs for farmers, potentially undermining a key export sector.

Prime Minister Modi urged Indians to halt gold purchases for a year to protect foreign exchange reserves, a call supported by gtri which highlighted a surge in gold imports straining the trade balance. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw echoed the appeal, emphasizing reduced import spending amid Middle East conflict, leading to a sell-off in jewellery stocks.

India remains on the US Trade Representative's Priority Watch List for intellectual property protection, a designation that carries no legal ramifications but serves as a negotiation tool. The US cited concerns over pharmaceutical IP rules, while India maintains its regime ensures affordable medicine access and WTO compliance.

India's trade deficit with China has surged to $112.1 billion, driven by a deep reliance on Chinese industrial supplies. Manufacturing sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals depend heavily on Chinese components, creating significant supply chain risks. Experts urge India to boost domestic production and diversify sourcing to mitigate these vulnerabilities.

US courts have again blocked Trump's 10% global tariffs, deeming them unauthorized. This ruling, following earlier tariff invalidations, signals a return to WTO's MFN rates. For India, this policy instability raises concerns, prompting advice to pause Free Trade Agreement talks until US trade systems stabilize, preventing one-sided deals.

Exporters and end consumers are not permitted to file claims directly, although some companies, such as FedEx, may opt to pass on the refunded amounts at their discretion.

Indian exporters anticipate recovering discounts offered on goods previously hit by a 50% US tariff. Following a court order, US importers will receive refunds, with buyers expected to pass them on to Indian sellers.

The US has imposed up to 100% tariffs on patented drugs and certain metals, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing. While India's generic drug exports are largely exempt, firms producing branded medicines or inputs for patented drugs may face pressure. Developed nations are expected to bear the brunt of these new measures.

India's pharmaceutical exports are thriving, reaching $28.29 billion in April-February FY26, a 5.6% rise despite global challenges. The sector, currently valued at $60 billion, is projected to hit $130 billion by 2030. Leaders are optimistic about continued growth, even with potential US tariff impacts on future exports.

Trade ministers convene for WTO's MC14 in Cameroon, facing deep divisions on key issues like e-commerce, agriculture, and fisheries subsidies. Limited outcomes are expected as developing nations, including India, push to preserve policy space against developed countries' demands for broader liberalization.

India's solar panel, electronics, and garment exports face heightened US scrutiny following a new trade probe into forced labor in global supply chains. The investigation, covering 60 economies including India, examines goods made with forced labor or using inputs from such sources. This could impact Indian exporters reliant on Chinese components, demanding stricter documentation and compliance.

The economies included in the investigation are China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan and India.

Beyond oil, it’s important to note that West Asia plays an important role in supplying India with essential commodities. In 2025, India’s imports from the region of approximately $98.7 billion included critical resources such as energy, fertilisers and industrial inputs.

Exporters have raised strong concerns that the conflict could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, both of which are crucial maritime corridors.

The Middle East crisis has brought to fore with clarity an important fact - while India says it is comfortably placed on its oil, LPG, and LNG supplies - there is need to step up pace on long-term plans.

gtri says that several important questions related to the India-US trade deal remain unanswered. In a note post post Trump and PM Narendra Modi’s posts on social media platforms, Ajay Srivastava, founder of gtri said: Caution, not celebration, is warranted.