The
San Diego Padres are heading into the 2026 season with a big decision to make. Their starting rotation still has gaps, and they need to fix them if they want to stay competitive. With Yu Darvish’s $15 million no longer counting against the payroll due to his restricted-list status, the team now has money to spend.
That has brought
Lucas Giolito into the picture. He is coming off a solid 2025 season and is one of the better options available. The Padres need a reliable starter, and Giolito could be that player. The main question is whether this move makes sense for both sides.
Why San Diego Padres Need Another Proven Starter
The San Diego Padres have some experience in their rotation, but there are still plenty of question marks. Joe Musgrove is returning from Tommy John surgery, so it’s hard to know how effective he’ll be right away.
Randy Vásquez and Walker Buehler both have upside, but neither has been fully reliable so far. At the back end, Matt Waldron and Griffin Canning haven’t done much to build confidence either.
Overall, the rotation has talent, but it still feels uncertain heading into the season.
If Giolito signs, the rotation looks stronger and more balanced:
Padres 2026 Rotation (Projected):

Boston Red Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito, left, walks off the field after player introductions before Game 1 of an American League wild-card baseball playoff series (Image via AP Photo)
• Nick Pivetta
• Michael King
• Joe Musgrove
• Randy Vásquez
• Germán Márquez
• Lucas Giolito (if signed)
This group would give the Padres more depth and help them manage injuries and workload better across the season.
Contract Structure: Short-Term Flexibility Likely
Recent sourced reportings state that Lucas Giolito could get a three-year, $61 million deal. But the market may push that lower. A two-year deal worth around $40 million with a team option looks more realistic.
Potential Structure: • 2026: $17 million, joining after the Darvish situation is settled
• 2027: $20 million with a $3 million buyout
• 2028: Voidable option
This kind of deal works for both sides. The Padres avoid a long commitment, and Giolito still gets a solid contract.
Mutual Benefits for Both Sides
The San Diego Padres would gain depth and flexibility. They could move Waldron or Canning to other roles if needed. They also make good use of the money freed up by Darvish.
This move helps Giolito as well. He’s going to a team that’s trying to win, not one in a rebuild. After pitching 145 innings last season, the team can manage his workload more carefully this time. He’ll also have strong support from a lineup that includes Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Jackson Merrill.
Performance Outlook: Strengths and Risks
Giolito’s numbers from last season show he is still reliable. He had a 3.41 ERA with 121 strikeouts in 145 innings.
At the same time, his career 4.30 ERA shows he can be inconsistent. There is some risk of regression. The Padres’ defense should help reduce damage, but it is still something to watch.
Stat Snapshot (2025):
| Metric | Lucas Giolito | San Diego Padres Rotation Avg. |
ERA
| 3.41
| 3.95
|
K/9
| 7.5
| 8.2
|
WHIP
| 1.290
| 1.35
|
IP
| 145
| 130
|
Lucas Giolito Age, Fit, and Competitive Window
Lucas Giolito is 31 and fits the kind of pitching the Padres like. He’s younger than Darvish and still in a solid part of his career. The team’s average age is around 27.5, with many key players under 30, which sets them up well for the next couple of seasons.
Also read:
MLB trader rumors: New York Mets positioned to bag former $38.5 million Boston Red Sox star ahead of Atlanta Braves to bolster rotationThis move carries some risk, but it also has clear upside. The Padres get a stable starter without locking themselves into a long deal. Giolito gets a chance to pitch for a team that wants to win.
If the deal happens, the Padres improve their chances in 2026. It may not guarantee a title, but it puts them in a much better position.