War off the field, uncertainty on it: The 2026 FIFA World Cup dilemma amid Middle East conflict

The United States-Iran war, in which Iranian forces have attacked US bases in several Gulf States, has posed a looming threat to the conduct of several sporting events, including the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grand Prixes (F1) and the Finalissima, scheduled to be played between Spain and Argentina in Doha, Qatar. However, that is not the only football event under threat.

With the 2026 FIFA Football World Cup less than three months away and scheduled to be played in Mexico, Canada and the United States, an event which has not been free from controversies on account of the Mexico Cartel Violence and extremely high ticket prices, and the general volatility in the bi-lateral ties between US and Mexico and US and Canada on account of the tariff threats, the war puts FIFA in a tricky situation, more so on account of the controversial statements made by American President Donald Trump.




While Trump may have “welcomed” Iran to participate in the 2026 Football World Cup, in the same breath, he proceeded to point out the threat to the life and safety of Iranian footballers should they choose to participate. This has cast a shadow on Iran’s participation, which was the first country to qualify from Asia; however, prior to Trump’s abovementioned statement, Iran publicly expressed its intent to withdraw from the World Cup on account of the US having assassinated their leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.


The withdrawal, if any, will be an unprecedented move in the modern football era, and is comparable to the Bangladesh cricket team withdrawing from the recently concluded T20 World Cup due to a security threat, which was questioned by the global governing body ICC. However, after some negotiations, no sanctions were imposed on Bangladesh.

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The World Cup, being a FIFA event, the ultimate duty to provide a safe and secure environment rests with them, who are supported by local security authorities and the police. Should FIFA confirm a secure environment and Iran still chooses to withdraw, FIFA, in accordance with its bye-laws, may impose sanctions such as: (i) imposition of fines to the tune of at least CHF[Swiss Francs] 250,000 if the withdrawal is more than 30 days prior to the scheduled start or of at least CHF 500,000 if the withdrawal is less than 30 days prior (Article 6.2 of the Regulations for the FIFA World Cup, 26); (ii) as per FIFA statutes, member associations must participate in all official competitions for which they qualify, a ban from participating in future events may also be imposed.

What is ironic is that at the time of banning the Russian football team in 2022, for invading Ukraine, FIFA itself took a stance that matches involving the Russian teams would give rise to unacceptable safety and security risks, even if they were held at neutral venues, which was upheld by CAS. The position of the stakeholders differs, though. In the first case, Russia (the invaders) is a participant in competitions and subsequently banned. In the current scenario, the USA (the invaders) is a tournament host, putting FIFA in a Catch-22 situation.


Further, Article 6.5 of the World Cup regulations allows Member Associations to withdraw on account of force majeure; the interpretation of force majeure will depend on the prevailing circumstances at the time of withdrawal. Since the World Cup is being played across 3 countries, an option for FIFA may be to take refuge under Article 6.9 of the Regulations for the FIFA World Cup, 26 which permits them to relocate one or more matches for any reason, including as a result of force majeure, and schedule all of Iran’s matches outside of the US as a middle ground and develop a contingency plan should Iran make it to the final, which is scheduled to be played in New Jersey. This was also the approach taken by the ICC in the T20 World Cup, should Pakistan have qualified for the semi-finals and final.

Such a decision, if taken, may come with its own set of political consequences. Any aggressive decision taken now would also put a question mark on Iran’s participation in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, with football being an Olympic sport.


Sport, which has for time immemorial been used as a tool to unite people, is increasingly being affected by geopolitical events in today’s volatile global environment. As a result, international federations have not remained insulated and have often found themselves in the middle of controversies. While the charters of all international federations demand neutrality, this principle has, on several occasions, been called into question. Consequently, now more than ever, there is a growing need to establish clear directives in the interest of fairness.

(Aahna Mehrotra is the Founder & Principal Lawyer of AM Sports Law & Management Co.)



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