IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 8 matches to go, RCB officially qualify; DC’s chances rise to 19.5% — odds for each team explained

With 8 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. RCB have qualified and GT can only miss out through the net run rate route while SRH would have to do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs.

CSK and RR have a slightly less than even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. PBKS’ chances are at about one in three. KKR and DC have improved their chances with wins over the weekend, but they remain behind the rest.

There are now 256 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the seven remaining in the race.




We look at the probabilities:

• RCB are now sure to qualify and to at least finish tied for no.1 in terms of points. Their worst case scenario is a three-way tie for first place with GT and SRH.

• GT are assured of finishing within the top four in terms of points but they could still miss out on the playoffs. That could happen through a four-way tie on second with SRH, CSK and RR on 16 points. Their net run rate is currently the best among these four teams.

• SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four by points is at 87.9% and they have a 50% chance of being among the top two.

• CSK’s chances of being among the top four on points are now at 44.9% and they have a 25% chance of ending up tied for second with between one and three other teams.

• RR’s chances of ending up among the top four on points are at 44.5% after Sunday’s loss and they have a 9.4% chance of finishing among the top two tied with two or three other teams.

• With Sunday’s loss, PBKS’ chances of getting into the top four slots on points have dropped to 35.2% and they can no longer hope to even tie for one of the top two slots.

• DC’s chances of making the last four singly or jointly are now at 19.5% following Sunday’s win, but they too can no longer even tie for the top two slots.

• KKR’s chances of making the last four singly or jointly are now at 18% but like PBKS and DC they can no longer even tie for the top two slots.

How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 256 possible combinations of results remaining with 8 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly. For instance, RCB finish at no.1 on points in all 256 possible combinations of match outcomes, in some of them as sole leaders and others as joint leaders.

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