Coronavirus: Is there a possibility of a third wave hitting India? We weigh in

Since the onset of the novel coronavirus, India has lived through and survived two of the most disastrous COVID waves. While the first wave introduced us to the challenges posed by the SARs-COV-2 virus, the second wave added to the woes by attacking our healthcare system, damaging our medical infrastructure and claiming more lives than ever.

Now, with the emergence of the Omicron variant and the sudden surge in the number of COVID-19 cases, the possibility of a third COVID wave has become the talk of the town. While much remains under speculation, experts have stepped up and urged people to take preventive measures to avoid another uncontrollable situation.

Read also: Spike in cases of Omicron: What can we learn from countries where omicron is surging

The new coronavirus variant Omicron, first detected in South Africa and Botswana, has now been identified in at least 95 nations, including Britain, the United States of America, Denmark and Norway.

As far as India is concerned, it has recorded more than 200 cases of the new variant across 12 states, mostly in Maharashtra and the nation's capital New Delhi. The total tally of Omicron cases has swiftly doubled in just two weeks, which is extremely alarming.

In light of such rapid increase in the COVID-19 cases, Dr Trupti Gilada, Infectious disease specialist, Masina Hospital, Mumbai, believes that a third wave due to Omicron could be a possibility.

"The doubling time of cases with the omicron variant is around 3 days. The omicron numbers being reported from India is only a fraction of the real number that already exists. With the Omicron variant known to be at least three times more infectious than Delta, the third wave due to Omicron is almost inevitable," she says.

Recently, the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee predicted that the third wave of coronavirus is expected to hit India in February. Vidyasagar, the head of the committee, suggested that the daily coronavirus caseload in India, which is currently around 7,500 infections, could increase once the Omicron variant supersedes Delta as the dominant variant. He also suggested that the third wave could be milder than the second wave due to a large-scale immunity present in the country.

"With our population having better immunity as compared to early 2020, either because of vaccination or previous infection, we are hoping that most of these cases will be mild," says Dr Gilada.

However, the infectious disease expert states that the case fatality rate in India has shown an upward trend over the last few weeks, which is why, we cannot therefore dismiss the possibility of severe infections and deaths.

UK's Omicron death toll has increased to seven, while US reports it's first Omicron death, an unvaccinated man from Texas.

Data so far suggests that the new variant could be milder than the previous strains. However, there is no room for negligence.

Reportedly, preliminary research suggests that COVID-19 vaccines administered in most countries offer no defence against the highly contagious Omicron variant. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Chief Medical Advisor to the US President, recently commented on the same and said the efficacy of primary two doses of Pfizer and Moderna could be compromised by the new variant.

However, the existing vaccines are said to provide protection against severe disease or illness.

In the research, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, when supported by a third booster dose, showed some success at preventing infections from Omicron.

On the contrary, coronavirus vaccines developed by AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson Janssen and in China and Russia are said to do little to nothing to prevent Omicron infection. This, according to the researchers, could not only pose a great threat to the most vulnerable in society, but also cause more variants to emerge in the future.

That said, the demand for booster shots has shot up globally. India is yet to consider authorizing booster vaccines in the country. However, discussions around it are ongoing.

As Omicron cases rise in and around the world, European nations have reinstated coronavirus restrictions to curb the spread. The spike in COVID-19 cases is alarming public health officials, suggesting another infectious wave to hit people after the Christmas and New Year's holidays.

While several countries have tightened COVID-19 restrictions, India is yet to officially announce a nationwide lockdown.

In a recent update health secretary Rajesh Bhushan sent an advisory to all the state chief secretaries and UT administrators to consider steps like night lockdowns and bans on large crowd gatherings.

Considering the rapid increase in the number of COVID cases each day, Dr. Gilada emphasizes on following COVID-appropriate behaviour. "Universal masking, vaccination and early testing is very crucial; it is time to now pull up our guards once again before another wave knocks us down once again," she says.

India's medical infrastructure faced unprecedented challenges during the second COVID-19 wave. Lack of hospital beds, shortage of oxygen supplies, insufficient availability of specific drugs, all lead to a crisis-ridden situation.

Furthermore, the mortality rate in India during this time touched a new high, making it difficult for people to cope with it mentally.

In order to tackle another disastrous wave, it is important that our medical infrastructure has an exceptional support system. Plans must be laid down to ramp up oxygen capacity in the country. Vaccination should be prioritized at all costs. Only when the majority of the population is vaccinated, can we look forward to booster shots.