La Nina conditions to set in by August-September: IMD's monsoon predictions for India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-normal rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season, influenced by La Nina conditions expected by August-September. (Picture credit: Agencies)

Despite the anticipated above-normal cumulative rainfall, India may face uneven spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall due to climate change, intensifying variability in rain patterns. (Picture credit: IMD@X)

As per IMD, there will be decrease in rainy days and increase in heavy rain events. Climate scientists highlight a decline in the number of rainy days alongside a rise in heavy rain events, contributing to more frequent occurrence of droughts and floods in India. (Picture credit: Agencies)

IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra notes that India has experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed an El Nino event, based on data spanning from 1951 to 2023. (Picture credit: Agencies)

India is anticipated to witness above-normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season, with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), driven by positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions and low snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. (Picture credit: Agencies)

El Nino conditions, characterized by warming surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole and snow cover over the northern Himalayas and Eurasian landmass influence monsoon rainfall patterns. (Picture credit: Agencies)

The southwest monsoon, which contributes approximately 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, plays a vital role in the agriculture sector, accounting for about 14 percent of the country's GDP. (Picture credit: Agencies)