NEW DELHI: In politics, there are decades when nothing happens, and days when decades happen. Was June 4, 2024, one such day?
On the eve of the parliamentary results, pollsters swore by a "
purna bahumat", a resounding majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It seemed almost certain, except perhaps to those who had actually voted in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Haryana.
The biggest setback for the BJP came in Uttar Pradesh, the state often described as the road to Delhi’s throne. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the party won only 33 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state, a steep fall from 62 in 2019 and 71 in 2014.
What had long seemed an indomitable juggernaut finally stumbled. The Modi-led BJP finished well short of the 272 majority mark, securing 240 seats in the Lok Sabha. This was the first time BJP did not have majority on its own since 2014.
The coalition era, once swept away by the storm of "Ab ki baar, Modi sarkar," returned, with JD(U) chief
Nitish Kumar and TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu becoming the key players in Modi government 3.0.
However, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar's support came with a political premium, which the allies are now redeeming during seat-sharing talks in Bihar, making the entire negotiation a tough nut for the BJP to crack.
ALSO READ | Bihar polls: CM face confusion in Mahagathbandhan, seat chaos in NDA - decoding political dramaNitish Kumar's JD(U), which had performed poorly in the 2020 Bihar assembly polls, seemed to be fading into irrelevance -- until the 2024 general election results were declared.
The JD(U), which had won only 43 of the 115 seats in the 2020 assembly polls, made a strong comeback in the 2024 parliamentary elections, when its support became crucial for the survival of the BJP-led NDA at the Centre.
It's obvious that had the BJP crossed the 400 mark or even secured a full majority, the Bihar seat-sharing talks would have been a cakewalk. That's no longer the case. As the alliance races against time to finalise its plan ahead of the Phase 1 nomination deadline on October 17, the BJP now finds itself balancing two tasks -- managing its long-term ambition of expanding its solo footprint in Bihar while also handling the egos and expectations of its allies.
Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) and Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), both part of the NDA, have long been bitter critics of the JD(U) and have even hurt the party’s poll prospects in the past.
ALSO READ | 'Government job for all households': Tejashwi Yadav sounds poll bugle; makes major promise ahead of Bihar electionsAlthough Manjhi and Paswan remain within the NDA fold, they are unlikely to miss the chance to leverage a weakened BJP to further shrink the clout of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), their long-time rival in Bihar politics.
The BJP, on the other hand, might have ignored such friction had it not been for the 2024 results. But with Nitish now holding the key to stability at the Centre, the BJP cannot afford to upset him. And if the party leans too far towards Nitish, Manjhi and Paswan could drift away, a move that risks splitting votes across the sections in Bihar.
Manjhi’s recent post on X, quoting Ramdhari Singh Dinkar’s Rashmirathi to vent his displeasure over the NDA’s seat-sharing talks, revealed more than it concealed. The HAM chief’s cryptic lines appeared to cast the BJP, the alliance’s dominant force, as a modern-day Duryodhana, unwilling to part with even an inch of his kingdom.
Chirag Paswan, meanwhile, took a far bolder route. With his rallying cry “Ab ki baari, yuva Bihari” (this time, Bihar’s youth), he made it clear he doesn’t see himself as a side player but as a central force shaping the NDA’s future in Bihar.
As the NDA’s Bihar allies weigh their options, what unfolds in the state could well set the tone for the coalition’s politics at the Centre. Nitish Kumar, once written off, now finds himself holding the balance of power, while his smaller allies test the elasticity of this uneasy alliance.
For the BJP, the challenge lies in keeping its flock together without ceding too much ground, a delicate act of arithmetic and perhaps "ego management".
In Bihar, as in Delhi, alliances are rarely built on trust alone. They rest on leverage, timing, and perception. And as the seat-sharing saga plays out, it is becoming clear that the "purna bahumat" that once seemed certain in Delhi is now being recalculated in Patna.
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