Bihar election 2025: How BJP's numbers gain cushions it against another Nitish deal with MGB

NEW DELHI: NDA's massive win in Bihar has placed BJP in a sweet spot as seat shares of different parties, across the political spectrum, have virtually cushioned it against political exigencies which have bedevilled it in the past.

Though BJP and JDU have bonded well since CM Nitish Kumar returned to NDA in Jan 2024 and has vowed to never join hands with RJD again, the decimation of Lalu Prasad's party has ensured any such future prospect is hardly a guarantee for a new govt.

RJD's tally of 25, six of Congress and JDU's 85 MLAs together falls short of the majority mark of 122 - a feat that was achievable after the 2020 elections when Nitish decided to dump BJP.


A consolidation of the entire Mahagathbandhan with JDU will reach the 120 mark and will require the support of AIMIM's five MLAs to cross the magic number, an uncertain scenario as it includes parties with one or two MLAs and six of Congress, which has a history of legislators breaking ranks in the state.

With BJP emerging as the single-largest party for the first time in Bihar after an assembly poll - it had achieved the distinction in the outgoing assembly after bypolls and joining by MLAs of Vikassheel Insaan Party - with 89 seats, the party can hope to spurn any bid to oust him from power, a fate it has suffered twice as Nitish switched between alliances.

While the Chirag Paswan-led LJP(RV), which has won 19 seats, has been firmly by BJP's side, two other NDA partners, Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcham, have increasingly hewed closer to BJP even though both were once in JDU.

HAM and RLM have won five and four seats, respectively. BJP with its three other allies outside JDU will have the support 117 MLAs and depend upon support from six more lawmakers to get a majority, if such an eventuality arises.

The numbers have also ensured that no non-JDU ally is in a position to push BJP, or is left with much leverage to get its demand met.

Paswan in the past has at times flexed muscle in seat-sharing talks or tried to take a line different from BJP on key political issues, a tactic often resented by the BJP brass.

Manjhi like Paswan has always been vocal in endorsing PM Narendra Modi but is seen a mercurial ally. Both are also cabinet ministers at the Centre. With Lok Sabha elections due in 2029 and assembly polls over, it is unlikely that any of these allies will venture to disturb the governing coalition.

There is a view that BJP may also induct Kushwaha as a minister in the central govt or make his wife, who has won as an MLA, a minister in the state govt to ensure that all its allies are suitable rewarded.

BJD had hit a similar enviable zone following the Maharashtra assembly polls where NDA received a sweeping mandate as it has now in Bihar. In the 288-member House, BJP won 132 seats, reducing its dependability on allies significantly. It ensured its decision to replace Sena politician Eknath Shinde with its neta Devendra Fadnavis as CM was executed without any major hiccup.

In Bihar, BJP has asserted NDA was fighting the election under Nitish's leadership and that there was no vacancy for the top post, while stopping short of declaring himself as its chief ministerial face. However, his continuation is seen as most likely.


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