Osama’s death may end bloom of Arab Spring

I did not celebrate Osama bin Laden’s death. Killing an individual is easier than killing an idea. Osama’s idea of jihad survives his death. He was the mastermind of 9/11 and the most iconic jihadi figure. Yet he had long ceased to direct jihadi movements and had run foul of some by killing Muslims opposed to al-Qaida. Nevertheless, Osama succeeded in popularizing a newversion of jihad. In this, suicide attacks and civilian killings—bothcrimes in traditional Islam—became glorious jihadi tactics that fulfilledIslamic goals and ensured a passport to paradise. John Brown, US anti-slavery leader, led a slave uprising in 1859, and was hanged for it. Yet his ideal of abolishing slavery triumphed. This inspired the US civil war song “John Brown’s body lies a’mouldering in the grave, but his soul goes marching on.” So too will Osama’s . His deathmay encourage the US to withdraw troops quickly from Afghanistan, strike a dealwith the Taliban, and play down terrorism directed at India rather than the US.Pakistan will see this as vindication of its two-faced policy of usingterrorists against India while playing footsie with the US. Such two-facednessmay mean worse violence within Pakistan, with radicals gaining ground fromliberal Muslims. India may suffer further 26/11-style attacks, more violence inKashmir, and more external assistance for domestic jihadi groups. We may evensuffer another Kandahar-type hijack. To scotch this, militant Hindus want to emulate the US by raiding and assassinating targets in Pakistan such as Hafeez Saeed of the Lashkare-Taiba , mastermind of 26/11. This approach will fail. Just look at the ultimate failure of many killing missions of Israel, which is global No.1 in political assassinations and much admired for it by the RSS. Ronen Bergman, Israeli military analyst, recalls that in 1992,Israel assassinated Hezbollah founder Abbas Mussawi. Far from weakeningHezbollah, this fuelled its anger and led to a retaliatory attack on the Israeliembassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29. Mussawi’s replacement, HassanNasrallah, greatly increased Hezbollah’s clout using arms supplies fromIran. This helped him wage an inconclusive war against Israel in 2006. Israelinflicted much damage on Lebanon, yet ended by withdrawing, a worse outcome thananything imaginable in Mussawi’s time. In 2004, Israelassassinated Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, hoping to cripple theorganization . Instead, Hamas became stronger and more aggressive. Yassin was adevout Sunni who opposed Shia Iran, but after his death, Hamas happily joinedhands with Iran and was armed by it, to Israel’s utter dismay. So, whileIndia faces a growing threat from jihadis, Israel shows us that assassination isno solution—it looks macho but ends up strengthening your foes.Ultimately, militant Islam will be quelled only by liberal Islam , not byoutsiders, and that internal struggle is beyond our power to resolve. Whether welike it or not, we cannot impose a military solution. Optimistsdisagree. They claim that jihad as a philosophy has been beaten back by the ArabSpring, and that secular freedom movements in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya havedisplaced sectarian ones. I would love to believe this is the case, but historysuggests otherwise. Many liberals (including me) hailed the 1979Iranian revolution that overthrew the Shah. Alas, this brought not democracy buta murderous , oppressive theocracy. Liberals cheered prospects ofdemocracy when Algeria held its first free elections in 1991. But an Islamistparty won the first round. So, with US blessings, democracy was abandoned infavour of continued military rule. Elections in Palestine brought to powerHamas, a radical Islamic party, humiliating the secular PLO. Why doIslamists so often win free elections in the Middle East? Because localdictators can neuter secular opposition groups but dare not close down themosques. Hence mosques become natural opposition centres. When autocracy givesway to elections, Islamic parties (like the Muslim Brotherhood) are the bestorganized, and so best placed to win. In Egypt’s referendum onconstitutional reform in March, opposition leader El Baradei (who wantedelections put off to help secular parties organize) was prevented from castinghis vote by Islamists who pelted stones. Does this portend liberal democracy orIslamist intolerance? This must stoke fears that the Arab Springwill bring radical Islamists to power in many countries. I would love to beproved wrong. But I have a sinking feeling that we will soon say of Osama whatBertold Brecht said of Hitler. “Don’t rejoice in hisdefeat, you men. For though the world stood up and stopped thebastard, The bitch that bore him is in heat again.”