Where contests were direct, victory margins were the narrowest

The average margin of victory in 2024 Lok Sabha polls was about 1.6 lakh votes, but that varied significantly across states. Not surprisingly, those that were dominated by a single party or alliance saw the highest average margins while states that saw two alliances or parties going toe to toe had significantly narrower margins of victory on average.

The highest average margin among states with five or more seats was in Madhya Pradesh, where BJP made a clean sweep, at about 3.4 lakh. This was followed by Gujarat, another state with a near total saffron sweep (almost 2.8 lakh) and Uttarakhand (2.3 lakh). On the flip side, Tamil Nadu, which saw a clean sweep by the DMK led alliance, also had margins averaging 2.2 lakh.

At the other end of the spectrum, Punjab had an average margin of just about 70,500. In UP, which saw a fierce battle between NDA and INDIA alliance, margins were on average under a lakh while Bihar and Maharashtra too were just over a lakh.

Odisha was an interesting outlier. While the seat tally would indicate that it was a one-way street with BJP winning 20 of the 21 seats, the average margin was a little over a lakh, on the lower side among the larger states, suggesting that the contests were closer than the seat tallies would make us believe.

The highest margin was in Dhubri in Assam, where Rakibul Hussain of the Congress polled nearly 14.7 lakh votes and beat Mohammed Badruddin Ajmal of the AIUDF by over 10 lakh votes, a new record. The lowest margin of a mere 48 votes was in Mumbai North West where a battle between the two Sena factions saw the Shinde group’s candidate Ravindra Waikar just pip the UBT group’s Amol Kirtikar at the post.