Mamata's Bhowanipore shows a rise in voters' turn out

KOLKATA: Bhowanipore has registered a surge in voter turnout when many constituencies in Kolkata showed a dip. Poll percentage in this high-voltage south Kolkata constituency rose by 2.99%. To put it flat, as many as 6059 more votes were cast this time, leaving the Trinamool organisers guessing which way these votes went. The answer is crucial for them because the BJP had a lead of 185 votes from this assembly segment in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
The rise in poll percentage reflects, to say the least, an increased interest among voters to cast their vote, given the prominence Bhowanipore gained with Mamata Banerjee, Deepa Das Munshi and Chandra Bose in the fray. Trinamool insiders would love to see a dip in BJP votes, though not a slide from 17%, because that would help dividing the opposition votes giving Mamata an advantage.
Some others argue that priorities change in every elections, and it won't be wise to compare Lok Sabha votes with that of the assembly. There are instances where a surge in vote went for the government that has come under challenge from the opposition. But instances, to the contrary, are easy to find. The opposition banks on this comparatively high voter turnout saying that people came out in large numbers to vote against Trinamool. The truth will come out only when the results are declared on May 19.
Here are some hard facts. In the 22 constituencies in and around Kolkata, 18 recorded a dip by an average 3.5% with Bidhannagar and Rajarhat-Gopalpur showing a decrease of 6.38% and 6.43% respectively. Chief minister's constituency recorded a nearly 3% rise in voter turnout, the highest since delimitation, followed by Chowringhee (1.6%), Entally (1.04%) and Shyampukur (.61%).
When asked whether it is the ant-incumbency factor that has led to this huge turnout, political scientist Prabhat Dutta said, "There is definitely an anti-incumbency factor but there are several other factors which led to the rise in turnout. The middle class educated Bengali felt that their values and tradition are threatened under the leadership of Mamata Banerjee and they voted aggressively. This might be one of the main reasons behind the turnout mystery." Dutta also believes that the elite and the organised corporate class that has sizeable population in Bhowanipore might not be very happy with the industrialization policy of Mamata Banerjee.
"The Gujarati community holds key to the constituency. The Modi factor during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls might have prompted them to vote for BJP. The factor is no more there this time," political scientist Mohidul Islam said. Islam believes that Bhowanipore's contest was polarised between Mamata Banerjee and Deepa Das Munshi with both the parties trying their best to rally their supporters.
Psephologist Biswanath Chakraborty had a different take. "Bhowanipore's demography has changed substantially in the last five years. A whole lot of immigrant workers have started staying in this area. They constitute a considerable section of voters which is comparatively new in this traditionally upmarket constituency. Now these people, who are mainly workers and guards in different highrises, maids and are engaged in some other unorganised sectors, have a huge contribution to this rise in polling percentage." Chakraborty believes that these new voters may side with the ruling party. "The poll percentage may have risen due to these new voters. They may not go against the ruling party."