Voters turnout up in Trinamool strongholds

Kolkata: A high voting percentage in districts, reportedly Trinamool Congress strongholds, may hold the key to the May 19 results in Bengal. A high poll turnout, historically, doesn't augur well for a ruling party. The spread of the seven districts that voted above 85% is diverse in its geographical range - from Cooch Behar to West Midnapore. Overall, the voting turnout has seen a decline since the 2011 assembly polls.
Cooch Behar and East Midnapore stand out in a set-pattern in this high turn-out districts. Typically, while the higher turnouts (in districts) were evident only in the first three phases (when there were lesser central forces deployed), in the subsequent phases, there was a dip in the turnout figures.
Only Cooch Behar and East Midnapore, which voted in the last phase, show high poll percentage. It also resonated with Trinamool Congress's East Midnapore satrap Subhendu Adhikari's poll-day boast that they had outmanoeuvered the central force strategy, learning it in the first five phases. East Mindapore, which recorded 90.17% polling in 2011 - the highest among all districts - kept its record intact in 2016 too with an 87.17% polling. Trinamool had won all the 16 seats here in the last assembly poll. Cooch Behar, where the alliance won 6 out of 9 seats in 2011, recorded 86.05% polling this year.
An analysis of the EC turnout data suggests that seven districts - Jalpaiguri (86.23%), South Dinajpur (86.16%), Nadia (85.36%), West Mindapore (86.15%), Bankura (85.32%), Cooch Behar and East Midnapore - recorded high turnout. A 2011 assembly seat analysis shows that Trinamool Congress had won 61 of the total 86 seats in these seven districts. If one factors in Congress in the 2011 assembly polls, the total number of winning seats will rise to 65. The fine print here is West Midnapore, where the Trinamool won only 9 of the 19 assembly seats in 2011. But, within four-and-a-half-years, it was able to consolidate its position here. In the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, Trinamool won 14 assembly segments in West Midnapore.
Jalpaiguri, where the turnout figures were more than 85%, appears to be the only blot in this script. For in this district, the opposition has a strong presence that later got divided into two districts - Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar. The other district in North Bengal is South Dinajpur where the voting percentage is above 85%, ahead of the poll percentage in 2011 (82.65%). Trinamool doesn't hope much here.
In South Bengal, now a Trinamool Congress bedrock and where the party is looking to off-set the opposition's gain in north Bengal, the turnout figures didn't throw up many surprises. In North 24-Parganas, Howrah, South 24-Parganas, Burdwan and Birbhum, it remained below 85%. Ironically, in 2011 elections, the voters' turnout in Burdwan, Birbhum and North 24-Parganas was more than 85%.
A slight dip in voting percentage, reflective of a ruling party desperately trying to ward off the anti-incumbency factor, appears to be symptomatic. But if read between the lines, it may also bring down the vote share making every single vote count in a three-cornered contest.
In patches of south Bengal (also in some assembly segments in north Bengal) BJP had stitched together a spirited and vociferous campaign. A three-way split in these segments could, therefore, throw many surprises. Besides, a sense of confidence in the opposition ranks makes the outcome slightly unpredictable.